Shahmahmood Miakhel

Observers of political affairs in the Arab world are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Arab League summit, set to be held at the end of March in Tunis. Although Syria will not participate in the meeting, the question of when, or how, to bring Damascus in from the cold after an eight-year suspension from the body will be the most important issue on the agenda.

Washington devised the recent Middle East summit in Warsaw in the hope of mobilizing a broad front against Iran. In the end though, it was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who reaped the greatest reward.

One of the most important reasons for Indonesia’s relative success is undoubtedly the existence of Pancasila, the pluralist State ideology. Equally important is the presence and role of major Islamic social and political groups, including the large Islamic mass organizations and Islamist political parties, that have supported the development of a truly inclusive, pluralistic and participatory democracy in Indonesia based on Pancasila.

Following the Feb. 13 truck bomb on members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Sistan-Baluchistan, the government was quick to blame foreign powers. Iranian officials aim to deflect attention from the country’s intractable internal problems, such as the persecution of its Sunni minority, a deep-rooted issue that has often been overlooked by the international community.

Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior vice president, discusses the context of the resignation and its implications for Iran’s foreign policy, including the nuclear deal, as well as for its domestic politics.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Mirette F. Mabrouk, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Przemysław Osiewicz, Grace Wermenbol, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the EU-Arab League summit, the progress in US-Taliban talks, challenges to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s power, consequences of the Kashmir attack, and Turkey’s next steps in Syria.

As the Sochi talks made clear, for all their efforts, Russia and Turkey remain far from a joint resolution on Manbij. But the two sides do not have equal clout on the issue. Russia’s significant and expanding military police presence in the Manbij countryside gives Moscow the final say on what will happen there, a reality that could result in Ankara losing some or all of the region to its Syrian rivals in Damascus.

When this month’s EU-Arab League Summit in Egypt was announced last September, the issue of African migration to Europe topped the agenda. Other high-priority issues have since been added — such as solving five regional conflicts and addressing security, trade, and multilateralism — but migration remains the highest priority for a Europe still reeling from the 2015 migrant crisis.

The Middle East Summit held last week in Warsaw, Poland, has been heavily criticized as a meeting to bolster anti-Iranian sentiments, rather than a genuine attempt at peace negotiations. This carries serious implications for the Middle East as well as US-EU relations.

Kenneth Pollack, resident scholar at AEI, joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss his new book, Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness.

The current conflict in Afghanistan, the latest in a series of perpetual wars and episodes of civil strife over the past 40 years, is strategically stalemated. While the Taliban are willing to negotiate with the U.S. about the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country, they continue to reject direct talks with the Afghan government for a political settlement. Even with inclusive peace talks, there is reason to question whether the Taliban’s vision of a future Afghan state and society can be reconciled with a liberal, democratic constitutional order.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on Saudi-Pakistan relations, Turkish politics in the lead-up to March municipal elections, and the question of what to do with ISIS prisoners after the group’s territorial collapse.

Since the intensive campaign of civil resistance that culminated in the January 2011 ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali after 24 years in power, Tunisia has undergone a political transition that has produced a new constitution, unharnessed civil society, and delivered much-needed political and economic reforms. Although the transition process has also included security sector reform (SSR), Tunisians remain insecure — subjected to a steady, unabated diet of everyday violence.