What Trump’s 2026 Mideast approach could look like

Donald Trump’s first year of his second presidential term has been a roller coaster of twists and turns both at home and abroad—particularly in the Middle East. His regional focus was driven by two main factors: first, Trump’s own ego and sense of possible place in history; and second, the volatile, dynamic events driven by actors in the region.

Trump heralds the 2020 Abraham Accords and his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, including the 2020 strike that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, as two of the top foreign policy achievements of his first term. In the whirlwind of Trump’s grand ambitions for the world—including ending the Ukraine war, reshaping America’s economic links to nearly every country, and implementing the harshest immigration policies in decades— the Middle East continues to figure prominently. Trump’s Abraham Accords left a mark on Middle East history during his first presidency, and he wants to cement that legacy in his second term.

But apart from his personal ambitions, regional dynamics have also compelled him to act. This is not uncommon for US presidents, who often find themselves getting involved in the region more than they originally wanted or planned. Every US president has had his “Michael Corleone” moment—the character in the third Godfather movie who fatalistically says, “Just when I thought I was out, I get pulled back in.”

Photo by Alex Wong via Getty Images

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