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Are Turkey and Russia bracing for conflict in the South Caucasus?
  • Analysis
  • Are Turkey and Russia bracing for conflict in the South Caucasus?

    On July 12, the Armenian and the Azerbaijani armed forces started a border skirmish. Fighting went on for several days, leaving at least 16 dead in its wake. Remarkably enough, the two sides are facing off outside the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the usual flashpoint. This time around the flare-up took place well to the north, where Armenia’s Tavush region meets Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district. It is little wonder then that the crisis caught Turkey’s attention.

    Emirati DPlomacy and Chinese BRInkmanship
    Photo by KARIM SAHIB/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Emirati DPlomacy and Chinese BRInkmanship

    The coronavirus pandemic that originated in China could not have come at a worse moment for the UAE. Indeed, before its outbreak, relations between the UAE and China were in an excellent place. Underpinned by growing economic exchange, the bilateral partnership holds the promise of turning into a geo-economic and geopolitical one. For Beijing, the UAE is first and foremost a critical hub for re-export to the wider region and ultimately, it is in the domain of maritime trade and around China’s BRI that the partnership has its greatest potential.

    July 28, 2020

    A ‘New Normal’ in GCC-Asia Health Cooperation?
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • A ‘New Normal’ in GCC-Asia Health Cooperation?

    Medical tourism is an important form of cooperation in the health sector between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Asia. The increasing flow of patients from the Gulf to Asian for medical treatment in recent years has been underpinned by a feature of GCC countries’ healthcare systems that is unique, namely government sponsorship of overseas medical treatment. This article discusses the immediate impact and possible implications of the Coronavirus pandemic for GCC-Asia health cooperation.

    July 28, 2020

    Iran-China deal raises more questions than answers
    Photo by Pool/Iranian Presidency/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iran-China deal raises more questions than answers

    China has become the new polarizing factor in Iranian politics, and the latest issue is the 25-year deal between Iran and China.

    July 27, 2020

    Syria’s 2020 parliamentary elections: The worst joke yet
    Photo by AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Syria’s 2020 parliamentary elections: The worst joke yet

    Syria’s recent parliamentary elections, held on July 19, set a new precedent for the Assad regime, and there were 10 key differences from the previous elections that have been held since they were first introduced by Hafez al-Assad in 1973.

    July 24, 2020

    Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes put an end to cautious optimism
  • Analysis
  • Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes put an end to cautious optimism

    On July 12, military clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, quickly escalating into the single deadliest incident since the “four-day war” of April 2016. While violent outbreaks between the two sides are common, they usually occur on the Line of Contact around Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories. This time, however, fighting erupted along the internationally recognized Armenia-Azerbaijan border, far away from the actual conflict zone. With heavy use of artillery, drones, cyberattacks and disinformation – causing at least 17 combined casualties, including a well-known Azerbaijani army general – the violence risked spiraling into a major war.

    July 23, 2020

    Linking the past to the future: Economic diversification and tourism in Oman
    Photo by GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Linking the past to the future: Economic diversification and tourism in Oman

    Oman’s new ruler, Sultan Haitham, only has a short timeframe in which to aggressively diversify the country’s economy and reduce its dependency on hydrocarbon exports. This already difficult task is further complicated by the twin challenges of the global coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices, both of which limit the government’s fiscal room for maneuver. One obvious sector that Oman should consider expanding rapidly is its tourism industry.

    July 23, 2020

    Positioning the Provinces Along China’s Maritime Silk Road
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Positioning the Provinces Along China’s Maritime Silk Road

    China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a central policy framework with decentralized initiatives. Under the BRI’s Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the Maritime Silk Road (MSR), China’s inland provinces and coastal peers have been obliged to implement the top-down national strategy while at the same time having been granted the latitude to interpret the strategy to suit their commercial interests. This article looks at how Fujian and Jiangsu provinces have sought to position themselves along the Maritime Silk Road with respect to their relations with Middle Eastern partners.

    While the U.S. is not a Black Sea country, it needs to be a Black Sea power
  • Analysis
  • While the U.S. is not a Black Sea country, it needs to be a Black Sea power

    For many policymakers the Black Sea is a secondary consideration when it comes to transatlantic security. A lack of resources by NATO members meant that initiatives taken to bolster territorial defense were limited geographically after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the time, Baltics were seen as the most pressing priority. Instead of bolstering NATO’s frontline from the Baltic to the Black Sea, the alliance instead focused most of its energy and resources on northeastern Europe.

    July 21, 2020

    The potential cyber consequences of Israeli annexation of Palestinian territory
    Photo by AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The potential cyber consequences of Israeli annexation of Palestinian territory

    While it seems as though the immediate threat of Israeli annexation has, for the time being, faded, the incident raises an interesting new set of questions about how this particular battle will continue to play out in an increasingly digitized Middle East and the potential for retaliation by Palestinian and other actors in cyberspace, whether or not such an annexation takes place.

    July 20, 2020

    New old dynamics at play in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
  • Analysis
  • New old dynamics at play in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

    There are two countries in Europe which have been at war with one other for three decades. Last week Armenia and Azerbaijan were fighting again. At least fifteen soldiers, including an Azerbaijani general and one civilian, were killed in clashes across their northern border between the towns of Tavush and Tovuz. After a brief lull, firing from heavy weapons resumed on July 16.

    July 17, 2020

    What’s behind the wave of mysterious incidents in Iran?
    Photo by AMIR KHOLOUSI/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • What’s behind the wave of mysterious incidents in Iran?

    On the 10th anniversary of the discovery of the Stuxnet computer virus, designed by the U.S. and Israel to target Iran’s nuclear program, the Islamic Republic is facing a new wave of unclaimed acts of sabotage.

    HTS and al-Qaeda in Syria: Reconciling the irreconcilable
    Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • HTS and al-Qaeda in Syria: Reconciling the irreconcilable

    HTS launched multiple raids on SBS, forcing its factions to close their military bases and banning the formation of any new factions or operations rooms. In doing so, it has killed two birds with one stone: demarcating new redlines for its rivals and demonstrating its usefulness to its Turkish “partner” and the international community in their war on terrorism.

    July 15, 2020