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Russkyi Mir in the Black Sea Region
  • Analysis
  • Russkyi Mir in the Black Sea Region

    Russkyi Mir is an ideological construct and foreign policy concept defined in the first mandate of President Vladimir Putin. While not regulated through legislation or policy, the concept is popular among Russian political thinkers and ideologists as a way to shape Russia’s relationship with the world. It is also often referred to in speeches by the president, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, and other key figures.

    July 12, 2021

    Going back to school on Palestinian textbooks
    Photo by HAZEM BADER/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Going back to school on Palestinian textbooks

    It would be an understatement to say that the Georg Eckert Institute for International Textbook Research in Germany has written the book on how to analyze textbooks. The Institute has actually published many books — ones that are meticulous, detailed, and dispassionate. Now the Institute has published one more, this time on Palestinian textbooks.

    July 12, 2021

    Exploring the rising workforce participation among Saudi women
    Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Exploring the rising workforce participation among Saudi women

    In the past few months, several articles have been written on the significant rise in the Saudi female labor force participation rate (LFPR) from 17.7% in Q2, 2016 to 33.2% in Q4, 2020. Interestingly, this increase in female LFPR was not coupled with a rise in unemployment, which often occurs when workforce participation rises for a particular group. In fact, the unemployment rate among female nationals declined to its lowest level in four years, at 24.4% in Q4, 2020. However, it still remains over twice as high as that for male nationals. Another positive labor market indicator, albeit one receiving little attention from analysts, is the significant change in the employment rate among Saudi women. In other words, Saudi women not only increased their share in the workforce, but were also able to gain jobs once they entered the labor force.

    July 9, 2021

    Serbia’s best friend in the Arab world: The UAE
    Photo by Martyn Aim/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Serbia’s best friend in the Arab world: The UAE

    On July 1, 2021, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, accompanied by Mohamed Alabbar, an entrepreneur and the chairman of UAE real estate firm Eagle Hills, attended a ceremony in Belgrade. It commemoratedthe final work on a tower within Waterfront Belgrade, a major real estate project funded by the UAE. The ceremony was an illustration of the growing ties between Serbia and the UAE, which over the past nine years has become Belgrade’s primary partner in the Arab world. The UAE has also emerged as a source of cash and an instrument of domestic political promotion for the Serbian leadership.

    July 9, 2021

    Cost of conflict: The consequences of war in Donbas, Ukraine
  • Analysis
  • Cost of conflict: The consequences of war in Donbas, Ukraine

    War does not end with the last bullet unloaded or agreement papers signed. Wars continue years after peace but in different ways: demining minefields, prosecuting criminals, fighting discrimination of minorities, and steering wartime narratives. Unfortunately, the longer a conflict goes on, the harder it is to achieve peace. This report provides an overview of the consequences (or ‘costs’) of the war in Donbas, Ukraine. It offers a concise overview of the key historical and economic developments surrounding the war, culminating in two major points. First, the main costs in the region arise because of a policy driven humanitarian crisis. Second, Ukrainian society is still polarized on critical issues.

    July 8, 2021

    إيران خسرت أولى معاركها في القامشلي وحدود سيطرة جديدة فرضتها معركة حي طي
    Photo by DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • إيران خسرت أولى معاركها في القامشلي وحدود سيطرة جديدة فرضتها معركة حي طي

    في أواخر شهر نيسان إبريل الماضي، شهد حي طي الواقع جنوبي مدينة القامشلي في محافظة الحسكة السورية، اشتباكات عنيفة بين قوات “الدفاع الوطني” التابعة للنظام السوري وقوات “الأسايش” التابعة للإدارة الذاتية “الكردية”، هذه الاشتباكات انتهت باتفاق تم بين الطرفين برعاية روسية.

    Iran’s loss in Qamishli’s Tayy neighborhood results in a shift in the boundaries of control
    Photo by DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s loss in Qamishli’s Tayy neighborhood results in a shift in the boundaries of control

    At the end of April, the Tayy neighborhood, in the southern part of the city of Qamishli in Syria’s Hasaka Province, witnessed violent clashes between the National Defense Forces (NDF) of the Syrian regime and the Internal Security Forces (Asayish) of the Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). The conflict ended with the negotiation of a permanent truce between the two parties under Russian auspices.

    Singapore and the Gulf: Economic engagement beyond hydrocarbons
    Lauryn Ishak/Bloomberg via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Singapore and the Gulf: Economic engagement beyond hydrocarbons

    Oil and gas have long dominated trade and investment flows between Singapore and the Gulf. In the wake of two new projects — one in Singapore and the other in the United Arab Emirates — unveiled last month, this article considers whether Singapore and the Gulf are on the cusp of a new level and type of economic relations.

    Russian-Iranian relations under Raisi and possible post-Khamenei scenarios
    Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Russian-Iranian relations under Raisi and possible post-Khamenei scenarios

    On June 18, Ebrahim Raisi won a landslide victory in Iran’s presidential elections. After Raisi’s triumph, Maxim Suslov, the press attaché of the Russian Embassy in Tehran, transmitted a message from President Vladimir Putin congratulating Raisi on his win and pledging to strengthen Russia-Iran bilateral relations. Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali echoed​​​​​​​ Putin’s comments about Russia-Iran relations and noted that he was the first world leader to congratulate Raisi on his election as Iran’s next president.

    July 7, 2021

    The Pakistan Factor in China’s Afghanistan Policy: Emerging Regional Faultlines amid US Withdrawal
    Photo by Yang Wenbin/Xinhua via Getty Images.
  • Analysis
  • The Pakistan Factor in China’s Afghanistan Policy: Emerging Regional Faultlines amid US Withdrawal

    To date, China has largely relied on Pakistan to conduct its Afghan policy. Not much bothered about the future political role of the Taliban, China fears the prospect of instability in Afghanistan after the U.S. exit. Beijing’s primary concern in a post-U.S. Afghanistan, which is likely to be run by a regime dominated by the Taliban, is that Uyghur separatists and ETIM might find a safe haven.

    July 6, 2021

    الوعود والمخاطر التي يواجهها المشرق الثلاثي الجديد للعراق
  • Analysis
  • الوعود والمخاطر التي يواجهها المشرق الثلاثي الجديد للعراق

    لقد كان يوم الأحد 27 يونيو/حزيران يومًا احتفاليًا في بغداد. حيث كانت المرة الأخيرة التي استقبل فيها العراقيون رئيسًا مصريًا قبل 30 عامًا. وقتها كانت المنطقة تستعد للحرب في أجواء يُخيِّم عليها عدم اليقين حين كان الرئيس الراحل حسني مبارك يتنقل بين بغداد وعواصم الخليج قبل غزو صدام حسين للكويت في 1990. غير أن الظروف اختلفت تمامًا الآن في 27 يونيو/حزيران الحالي، عندما تلقى الرئيس المصري عبد الفتاح السيسي والعاهل الأردني الملك عبد الله الثاني استقبالًا حافلًا بالسجادة الحمراء في قمة ثلاثية بمناسبة الاجتماع الرابع بين قادة الدول الثلاث بهدف تشكيل تحالف إقليمي جديد.

    July 6, 2021

    OPEC+ and the specter of Iranian oil
    Photo by Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • OPEC+ and the specter of Iranian oil

    The factor of Iranian oil, while important for the situation in the oil market, turned out to be somewhat overestimated in terms of its impact on OPEC+ decision-making.

    The War at Home: The Need for Internal Security Sector Reform in Iraqi Kurdistan
  • Analysis
  • The War at Home: The Need for Internal Security Sector Reform in Iraqi Kurdistan

    The forces and agencies of Kurdistan’s Ministry of Interior and the Kurdistan Region Security Council, collectively referred to the Kurdistan Region Interior Forces, are now the region’s main security actors, but their role as instruments of partisan rivalry and enforcers of public loyalty to the political bureaus threatens the Kurdistan Region’s stability. This report makes the case that coalition security sector reform efforts should be refocused on them. Although Peshmerga reform is necessary to improve the Kurdistan Region’s ability to combat external threats, it is equally, if not more important to start the same reform within these internal forces and agencies to achieve durable stability.

    July 6, 2021

    استراتيجية النيل المصرية
  • Analysis
  • استراتيجية النيل المصرية

    تخوض مصر وإثيوبيا والسودان في مأزق خطير بشأن نهر النيل، وعلى الرغم مما يعتقده المجتمع الدولي، فإن خطر المواجهة العسكرية بين الدول الثلاث ليس مستبعدًا على الإطلاق. إذ بدأت أديس أبابا في المرحلة الثانية لملء الخزان خلف سد النهضة الإثيوبي العملاق في أوائل مايو/أيار دون اتفاق مع الدول المشاطئة – مصر والسودان. غير أن الكثير قد تغير خلال العام الماضي والملء الثاني يتم في ظروف مختلفة نوعًا ما عن الملء الأول في يوليو/تموز الماضي. ففي الأشهر الماضية، عززت مصر من تواجدها الدبلوماسي وظهرت كلاعب مؤثر في حوض النيل والقرن الإفريقي وشرق ووسط إفريقيا.

    Vision, creativity, leadership: Charting Georgia's path to NATO
  • Analysis
  • Vision, creativity, leadership: Charting Georgia's path to NATO

    It has been more than a decade since Georgia was promised eventual membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the 2008 Bucharest Summit. At the time, NATO did not act decisively on granting Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP). A few months after the Summit, Russia invaded Georgia and continues to occupy Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region (more commonly known as South Ossetia). After years of economic, governance, and military reforms, this partial occupation remains the primary roadblock to meaningful progress on Georgia’s NATO aspirations. Other NATO members do not want to risk a confrontation with Russia by inviting Georgia to join the Alliance.

    July 1, 2021