Research & Commentary Results

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has destabilized and distressed the entire Black Sea neighborhood. Yet despite the war, or perhaps because of it, strategically important foreign direct investments into Black Sea littoral countries, including from the Gulf, have endured or even grown.

On this week’s episode Alistair Taylor, MEI’s editor-in-chief, is joined by Mick Mulroy and Eric Oehlerich, Senior Fellows with MEI’s Defense & Security Program and the Co-founders of the Lobo Institute and End Child Soldiering, to discuss efforts to stop the recruitment and use of children in combat and rehabilitate former child soldiers. The use of child soliders is a widespread global problem that has a disproportionate impact on the broader Middle East, especially in Yemen, Syria, Sudan, and Somalia.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine helped influence the updated European Maritime Security Strategy’s approach to the Black and Mediterranean seas, with implicit and explicit references to the war dispersed throughout the document. The updated EUMSS showcases the wide array of security issues present in the region, including seaborne UXOs, human and drug trafficking, and threats to critical infrastructure. But security in the Black and Mediterranean seas will require greater cooperation with non-EU countries.

The structural pretext that drove West Asia’s cycle of competition and proxy conflict is still in place without a clear solution in sight

Ukraine’s partners, led by the United States and spread over the globe, have increasingly responded to Russia’s full-scale invasion of February 2022 with a dizzying array of financial, humanitarian, and military assistance. Unfortunately, the way in which the U.S. and Ukraine’s other partners have provided military assistance over the last year — that is, by delivering a wide range of equipment, ammunition, and training — significantly undermines the longer-term objective of developing a sustainable system via which Ukraine can generate combat power in the coming years to overcome Russian aggression.

Relations between Tehran and Baku have long had their ups and downs, but a recent series of events in late March have once again brought tensions to a boil. However, despite the mutual threat perceptions, the recurring tensions between the two countries have not gotten out of control and led to military conflict. In fact, over the past three decades, relations between Tehran and Baku have consistently followed a cycle of escalating and de-escalating tensions.

Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are based on two main pillars: patient and cordial political relations as well as defense cooperation and arms sales. While the former reached a more intensive level this year, with the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in late March, the latter pillar of the relationship was well developed long before, as Israel became Azerbaijan’s largest weapons supplier.

The recent death of a 14-year-old girl following a botched “back alley” abortion at the house of her abuser is the latest reminder of the need to better protect women’s reproductive rights in Morocco and should push Moroccan authorities to address the multi-faceted social, legal, and economic drivers behind unwanted pregnancies.

French President Emmanuel Macron is taking Ursula von der Leyen with him on his trip to China next week. Von der Leyen is president of the European Commission and, until now, one of the European Union’s (EU) staunchest supporters of Ukraine. The two are scheduled to arrive in Beijing on April 4. While Macron’s visit had been announced some time ago, von der Leyen’s recent decision to join gives the trip a pan-European stamp of approval. But for what?

Repeatedly throughout Russia’s history, its authorities have employed unlawful occupations, annexations, deportations, filtration, and ethnic dilution through an influx of Russian settlers to control and reshape the Eurasian map in favor of Russian expansionism. The de-occupation and reintegration of the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine can be the only guarantee of durable peace in the heart of Europe.

While the U.S. and its NATO allies work on developing a Black Sea strategy, Washington should continue to cooperation with the Romanian Armed Forces, encourage the Romanians to build up their capabilities, and support the Romanian military’s officer corps development. In a multipolar world, solutions will need to be first and foremost regional — and in the Black Sea region, the Romanian Naval and Special Forces are a solid anchor for European stability.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

As fighting rages on in Ukraine, crucial submarine communication cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Not only have risks of accidents grown with the increase in regional naval activity, but deliberate attacks on these cables follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure below the threshold of war. Black Sea states need to more resolutely protect submarine cables, either within the format of NATO or novel regional frameworks.

The traditional 20th-century pillars of U.S.-Saudi bilateral relations are energy and security — a reflection of Cold War dynamics and the critical role that Saudi Arabia plays in the global economy as an energy superpower. Now, in 2023, Riyadh and Washington should think beyond energy to explore opportunities and address critical challenges in areas such as tech and cyber, which could ultimately cement their strategic relations for the 21st century.