Treading Cautiously on Shifting Sands: An Assessment of Biden’s Middle East Policy Approach, 2021-2023
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
How northern Syria’s triple water crisis is exacerbating its people’s woes
As the humanitarian, political, and economic challenges in Syria are occurring simultaneously with increasingly hot and dry summers, conflict- and climate-related factors have compounded, resulting in the emergence of a so-called “triple water crisis.”
After an uprising and violent crackdown, Syria’s Deir ez-Zor is at a critical juncture
On Sept. 8, the Kurdish-led SDF, a key U.S. ally, announced the end of its “Operation Security Enhancement” in Deir ez-Zor in northeast Syria. While framed as an operation targeting ISIS sleeper cells and criminals, it aimed at quashing an armed uprising led by Arab tribesmen, particularly members of the Akidat tribe. While multiple factors may have contributed to fueling the uprising, the importance of the region’s longstanding grievances cannot be overstated.
Nearly five months on, Sudan’s war between its army and largest paramilitary force has destroyed much of Khartoum, the adjacent cities of Bahri and Omdurman, as well as key towns in Darfur. The warring forces have killed thousands of civilians, destroyed critical infrastructure, and forced a staggering 4.9 million people to flee their homes. The U.N. is providing important humanitarian assistance, but it should be doing far more, especially to advance accountability and improve coordination in the messy diplomatic arena. Both the high-level week in New York and the Human Rights Council session in Geneva present opportunities that it should not squander.
Deir ez-Zor torn between Arab tribes’ struggle for independence and the SDF’s efforts to subdue them
On Sept. 8, the Syrian Democratic Forces were able to enter the villages and towns of Deir ez-Zor’s eastern countryside, stretching from al-Tayyanah to al-Baghouz, regaining control of all of the areas that had witnessed an uprising against their forces beginning on Aug. 27. But what sparked the fighting in the first place, how did things play out, and what might it mean for the region going forward?
صراع ديرالزور بين دفاع العشائر عن الاستقلالية ومخطط "قسد" للإخضاع
تمكنت قوات سوريا الديمقراطية في الثامن من أيلول/سبتمبر، من الدخول إلى قرى وبلدات ريف ديرالزور الشرقي الممتد من بلدة الطيانة حتى الباغوز، بذلك أعادة السيطرة على جميع المناطق التي شهدت حالة تمرد ضد قواتها، التي بدأت في السابع والعشرين من شهر آب/ أغسطس الماضي.
Years of simmering tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and local populations in northeast Syria have exploded this week into still-expanding battles across much of Deir ez-Zor. Conflict resolution requires the international coalition to engage with the Kurdish administration on deep political and administrative reforms. However, the violence in Deir ez-Zor may demand a more creative and locally driven approach to the northeast to foster a more resilient governance and security structure.
After Prigozhin: The future of Wagner and Russian gray zone activities in MENA
As the Wagner Group has an entrenched military presence in Syria, Libya, and Sudan, the evisceration of its senior leadership will have serious repercussions for Russia’s influence in the MENA region. Wagner’s military contractors are unlikely to depart, since they guard strategically valuable oil and mining facilities; but they are likely to now be swiftly integrated into the regular Russian Armed Forces.
The SDF has always been a diverse coalition of localized actors. Over the past eight years, it has managed to contain these persistent frictions, but that may now be coming to an end. In the past three days, at least 50 people have been killed in fighting between Arab tribal fighters and the SDF in the region where Syria’s Khabur and Euphrates rivers meet. The catalyst for this fighting occurred late on Aug. 27, when Ahmed al-Khubayl, the leader of the SDF’s Deir ez-Zor Military Council, was lured north to Hasakah for a purported meeting, only to be arrested alongside his brother and four other commanders.
Putting Egypt-Turkey relations on a sustainable footing
Turkey and Egypt, two influential regional players with a complex history of cooperation and conflict, are now working on mending their ruptured ties. As officials navigate this process, it is essential to identify practical steps to capitalize on the diplomatic breakthrough. Sustainable peace can only be ensured by shifting the focus from political ideology to shared interests. One way to do that is by creating an inclusive, multi-track process that involves state institutions, businesses, NGOs, academics, and the grassroots.
Power cuts in Egypt: A political liability for Sisi ahead of the upcoming elections
A brutal heat wave tormenting Egypt since mid-July, resulting in lengthy and repeated power cuts, has turned into a political liability for President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi ahead of his expected campaign to run for a third, six-year term early next year.
