Research & Commentary Results

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including the Turkish-U.S. crisis meeting in Ankara on Syria, the resumption of U.S.-Taliban negotiations, Trump’s creation of a new “dovish” line on Iran, a rise in Egypt’s poverty levels, Sudan’s democratic transition, the easing of female guardianship rules in Saudi Arabia, and the end of the ceasefire in Idlib, featuring Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Paul Salem, W. Robert Pearson, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Thomas W. Lippman, and Robert S. Ford.

Many of the divisions in the Arab World today are ideological and revolve around narratives — carefully constructed ontological representations of both how the world works and how it is supposed to work conforming to clearly set out interests and values. While the old sectarian narratives might still play an underlying role, what divides Arabs from Morocco to Oman are different grand-strategic visions of the region’s future after the Arab Spring.

OPEC+ nations have ended speculation about whether they would continue oil production cuts by agreeing to a nine-month extension. Led by the global petroleum powers Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group agreed on July 2 to extend the current level of cuts until the second quarter of 2020.

A reliable supply of freshwater is a prerequisite for sustainable socioeconomic development, as well as for sociopolitical stability and human prosperity, especially in semi-arid and arid regions of the world. The Middle East and North Africa’s freshwater resources are under immense pressures and are facing significant risks to their sustainability due to overexploitation, climate change, and interstate competition over their use that extends beyond the region’s boundaries.

It is easy to overlook the fact that food security could be an issue of concern in the Gulf Cooperation Council. After all, its member states have some of the world’s highest per capita income levels. Food supplies in the Gulf are normally abundant and stable. Were they to be disrupted, however, it could lead to food security challenges and a chain of adverse consequences for human security throughout the region.

One hallmark of Sudan’s most recent protests has been the protestors’ fierce determination that the military not be their partner in the struggle for democratization. Some GCC states, however, are getting involved in Sudan, using their financial means to influence the country’s future. In doing so, they risk making it the Arab world’s next theater for intra-GCC rivalry.

The military council in Sudan turned from talks to terror this week as it broke off negotiations with protestors. This left over a hundred civilians dead and many more injured.  

The launch of General Khalifa Hifter’s campaign to retake Tripoli in April has intensified Libya’s political upheaval and created the conditions for a potential resurgence of ISIS. The onset of the Libyan civil war in mid-2014 gave rise to a power vacuum that enabled the group to establish an initial presence in Libya, and while ISIS was eventually driven out at the end of 2016, the current political instability could give it an opportunity to regroup and re-establish itself — with major ramifications for the country and the broader region.

Muammar Gaddafi controlled all power in Libya for 42 years before the 2011 uprising. Since then, Libyans have been unable to rebuild national institutions and restore stability. Despite General Khalifa Hifter’s ongoing attempt in 2019 to conquer Tripoli by military force, Libya’s best chance for progress remains a unified international approach built on near complete alignment among international actors, supporting Libyans convening as a whole to address political, security, and economic issues at the same time.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Robert S. Ford, Jonathan M. Winer, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the sabotage this weekend of four ships off the coast of the UAE, the recent escalation of fighting in northwestern Syria, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Libya, and mounting concerns about Turkey’s economic health.

Much analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster last month has focused on how Sudan fits into the larger struggle between the Middle East’s Sunni powers, but Iran is also part of the equation as well. Saudi and Emirati leaders have a number of objectives in Sudan and preventing the Islamic Republic from re-establishing a foothold in Africa is one of them. Indeed, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are determined to ensure that Khartoum remains firmly in the anti-Iranian camp, following its realignment between 2014 and early 2016.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Emadeddin Badi, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the US decision to end Iran oil waivers, the flagging Afghan peace process, Iraq’s evolving regional policy, the status of General Hifter’s offensive in Libya, and Russia’s maneuvering to control the upcoming Syria talks in Astana.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.

New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts

Paul Salem
President

The fluid and chaotic situation in Libya is confusing and predicting how the ongoing violence in Tripoli will play out and impact the broader trajectory of the civil war is difficult. Nonetheless, Hifter’s campaign appears to be connected to several international and regional developments, the alignment of which seems to have prompted him to determine that this was an opportune time to move forward, dealing a harsh blow to the UN-led peace process.

Annette Weber, senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and Abdullahi Ibrahim, emeritus professor of African and Islamic history at the University of Missouri, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the popular protests in Sudan, now in their third month, and how the government has responded to demands for the resignation of President Omar al-Bashir.