Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Nine nations, including terrorist groups that are de facto governments, have attacked other countries in the region over the course of about two weeks. Numerous commentators have drawn the conclusion that a regional war is already underway or soon will be.
With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, America’s bilateral relationship with Pakistan may have come to hold less priority. If it was thought, however, that the U.S. could afford to largely turn its back on Pakistan and its region, it has instead become increasingly evident that American strategic interests and other concerns demand continued attention and involvement. It is imperative that American policymakers take a longer view when it comes to dealing with Pakistan, especially at a time when great power competition is intensifying across South Asia. It is in the interest of both the U.S. and Pakistan to develop a mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship.
When the United States and the United Kingdom decided to strike Houthi targets inside Yemen to stop the group from launching attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, most European allies did not want to get involved in the operation. The sole exception was the Netherlands, which grabbed the opportunity to step forward and show its willingness to provide not only political but also military support, albeit largely symbolic.
The unrelenting season of forced homecoming continues for Afghans who had sought refuge in neighboring countries in the past. Thousands of Afghan refugees have been forcefully relocated from countries like Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Tajikistan, back into Afghanistan. In a country where the current set of rulers has had little to offer other than regressive policies over the past 29 months to its citizens, these men, women, and children will find it difficult even to survive without an immediate increase in international attention and assistance.
Overnight US and UK strikes on Thursday delivered a strong message to the Houthis: their attacks on global shipping in the Red Sea will not go unpunished.
Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have sought means to capitalize on the war in Gaza to raise their profile, enhance their pan-Arab legitimacy, and burnish their credentials both domestically and in the region. In their effort to insert themselves into the Gaza conflict, the Houthis believe their actions will strengthen their support base at home while also cementing their movement more firmly into the Iranian “Axis of Resistance.”
The current escalation between Israeli and Hezbollah forces necessitates immediate action from the international community to prevent a widening of the Gaza war, and the US is positioned in a leadership role to mollify tensions, beginning with diplomatic actions to stabilize the Lebanese-Israeli border, helping to pacify the broader region as a result.
The US Department of Defense has stepped up and proposed some creative ideas regarding the future of America’s military presence in the Middle East region, as exemplified by the adoption of the concept of dynamic force employment.
In the mid-1980s, during the long war between Iran and Iraq, students at Tehran’s Jewish high schools would watch their friends suddenly disappear, and then reappear six months later in Europe, the U.S., or Israel. They would get there through a sophisticated smuggling operation that spirited Iran’s Jews out of the country and into Pakistan.
Two weeks ago, I had the privilege of joining more than 800 fellow futurists, and another 1,500 “futures-adjacent” collaborators, from over 100 countries at the second annual forum convened by the Dubai Future Foundation. Arriving with high expectations, I left even more enthused than I’d anticipated, and with invaluable new learning from those around me.
Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality, a goal that requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.
With the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, America’s bilateral relationship with Pakistan may have come to hold less priority. If it was thought, however, that the U.S. could afford to largely turn its back on Pakistan and its region, it has instead become increasingly evident that American strategic interests and other concerns demand continued attention and involvement. It is imperative that American policymakers take a longer view when it comes to dealing with Pakistan, especially at a time when great power competition is intensifying across South Asia. It is in the interest of both the U.S. and Pakistan to develop a mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship.
The Oct. 7 Hamas attack against Israel and the latter’s ongoing military operation in Gaza have stalled progress in the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and raised questions about its prospects for eventual completion. The IMEC faces multiple viability challenges, but none of them are insurmountable; thus, its participants are unlikely to abandon it.