Monday Briefing: Still at square one of a long and dangerous conflict
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The scale and brutality of Hamas’s grisly attack on Israel last Saturday has understandably triggered a massive outpouring of sympathy and solidarity with Israel. And yet, there has been no similar outpouring of sympathy for Palestinians, who are now also dying in disturbingly large numbers.
Hamas’ murderous raid on Oct. 7, resulting in the deaths of more than 1,300 Israelis, mostly civilians, may well turn out to be a consequential inflection point, having unleashed political and popular forces that could lead in a positive or, just as likely, extremely negative direction.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
After a year of unprecedented events, Israel’s political and constitutional turmoil came to a head on Sept. 12, when the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a critical case that will determine the future of the Netanyahu government’s judicial overhaul. The arguments concern the so-called Reasonableness Amendment, passed by Israel’s parliament in late July; this amendment to the country’s Basic Laws would partially strip the Supreme Court of its authority to review governmental acts.
Thirty years on since its historic signing, the Oslo Accords framework continues to define virtually all aspects of Israeli-Palestinian relations as well as America’s and the broader international community’s approach to the peace process. Yet Oslo’s extraordinary longevity stands not as a testament to its utility but to its unmitigated and ongoing failure.
Following two years of preparation, the Syrian Madaniya (“Civil”) initiative held its inaugural conference with over 180 participating organizations. To claim a political role, Madaniya needs a program and a partner. The natural partner for this endeavor is the Syrian Negotiation Commission.
In the wake of Israel’s deadly assault on the Jenin refugee camp, the largest military operation in the West Bank in nearly two decades, Israeli military officials have been quick to declare victory. But contrary to such bluster, the attack produced no real winners and only losers.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Iraq has long had a troubled history with its ethno-religious minorities, one full of oppression and violence. This was true under the Ba’athist regime and continued after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, reaching a nadir with the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group. Although Iraq is now enjoying its most stable period in the past two decades, it is also a case study of the pernicious effects of structural violence, especially toward the more marginalized and vulnerable segments of society.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Turkey is a test case of the limits of international human rights law in an authoritarian context. The country is party to all major U.N. and Council of Europe international human rights treaties, including those prohibiting torture and ill treatment, and is subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights. Its constitution and laws ban torture and contain procedural safeguards against it. Yet torture and the impunity of its perpetrators remain state practice, at times reaching systemic levels.
The Middle East is undergoing a historic transformation with unprecedented opportunities to build new relationships, de-escalate tensions, and foster conditions for stronger integration. At the same time, the region remains on edge because of ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones, a civil war that broke out recently in Sudan, along with the overarching challenges presented by fraught relations between Iran, Israel, and several Arab Gulf countries — with the longer-term implications of the still-fragile Iranian-Saudi rapprochement yet to be fully assessed.
Dynamics between Israel and the Arab world have taken a turn for the worse in the first few months of the new Israeli government. The positive momentum in Israel-Arab relations, which Prime Minister Netanyahu himself was key in generating through the signing of the Abraham Accords and which picked up pace during the Bennett-Lapid government that followed, has slowed down. Only limited progress may be feasible under the current government, but conditions for positive change do exist and include marginalizing Israeli extremists, avoiding a flare-up with the Palestinians, reducing the domestic turmoil in Israel, and ensuring the effective involvement of the U.S. and the EU.