Research & Commentary Results

In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on the likely evolution of the Israeli-Hezbollah war, the potential for the conflict to draw in outside actors, as well as the impact of the war on global terrorist recruitment and appeal for extremist activities.

The deadly, back-to-back pager/two-way radio attacks against Hezbollah, which killed dozens and wounded thousands of its operatives, undoubtedly signaled a new phase in the intense cross-border exchanges between the group and Israel.

Over the past few days, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a precarious new phase, with Israel carrying out both unconventional attacks and heavy airstrikes against the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, while Hezbollah has responded with an increase in retaliatory fire. 

Three years since the US and allied withdrawal from Afghanistan, the facts on the ground challenge some more optimistic depictions of the Taliban’s counterterrorism cooperation with the US, al-Qaeda’s reemergence, or the capacity of ISKP to direct external attacks that could threaten American interests.

Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.

After more than six months of talks, the United States and Iraq look set to announce a significant agreement stipulating that the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition will withdraw entirely from the country over the next two years.

The question of whether Armenia’s recent shift away from reliance on Russia is reversible is central to understanding its democratization trajectory. In recent years, Armenia’s dependency on Russia for security and economic stability has been severely tested, particularly during the 2020 Second Karabakh War and subsequent Azerbaijani incursions on sovereign Armenian territory, where Russia’s lack of support led to widespread disillusionment. This discontent has spurred Armenia to diversify its security, economic, and diplomatic ties, with a notable strengthening of relations with the United States. However, the sustainability of this shift remains uncertain, as it hinges on various societal factors and internal dynamics.

Azerbaijan’s takeover of Karabakh in September 2023, while a disruptive event, has opened the window for renewed dialogue to peacefully resolve the longstanding tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the ongoing negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive peace deal in the near term, they could alter the strategic calculus of key actors in the region. The most likely and consequential outcome of the talks will be a peace framework agreement that could rebalance the regional status quo, potentially leading to a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan seeks to establish itself as a major actor in the global energy transition space as it prepares to host the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, on November 11-22. COP29 offers many opportunities to improve US-Azerbaijani energy cooperation, including by coordinating the United States’ clean energy technology goals with Azerbaijan’s renewable energy revolution.

After the Cold War, the Romanian government chose to slim down its sizeable defense industry, but it essentially maintained its state-backed structure, personnel, and management, thus producing a thoroughly inefficient system. Today, Romania retains a proclivity to purchase Western, and particularly American, defense equipment; but it has often neglected any thorough assessments of life cycle costs or real force design considerations.

The Middle East teeters on the precipice of a substantial escalation, threatening to more fully draw in Lebanon, Iran, and perhaps other countries. What happens in the coming days, along with the decisions made by adversaries and allies alike, will determine if that happens.

Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once heralded as a “game-changer,” has almost disappeared from the spotlight in recent years. The project has faced slow implementation, unpaid loans, corruption, and a dire security situation. How is China responding to Pakistan’s poor handling of CPEC, its perpetual financial troubles, and its periodic demands on China to bail it out?

As speculation continues about a possible Turkish-Syrian normalization, what might such a process mean for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a close US ally? In a new piece for MEI, Amer al-Ahmed lays out three possible scenarios for the future of the SDF amid normalization.

Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it.