Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Over the last three weeks, there has been a notable escalation in attacks targeting international coalition bases in northeastern Syria orchestrated by Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Concurrently, there have been reports indicating the establishment of operational centers aimed at coordinating these strikes. These developments appear to be part of an effort to exploit the widespread popular discontent with the United States and Israel, with the strategic aim of expanding and consolidating Iranian influence in Syria.
As we watch the war in Gaza develop, we must not lose sight of the stark challenges the Israeli military is facing. Modern urban combat is always bloody and grueling, and the devastation it wreaks is gut-wrenching to watch. But in Hamas, Israel is facing a particularly formidable foe.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
In the midst of the current war, there is still no concrete plan for what the future of Gaza could look like. Yet preparations for a viable and lasting post-war order should start before it could be too late.
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared over the weekend that Israel had embarked on the “second stage” of its war against Hamas in Gaza. What did he mean – and is the Israeli government any closer to its objective of “wiping out” Hamas?
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The intensity of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks by Gaza and the ensuing crisis have already had a significant and dramatic impact on relations between the United States and Israel. The resolute American backing reflects the purest expression of the strategic partnership that has existed between Israel and the U.S. for more than five decades.
The Israeli government does its military no favours when it says that the goal of a ground invasion of Gaza is to “wipe out” or “destroy” Hamas. Such maximalist and eminently unrealistic objectives puts the Israel army in a bind: how to translate this political bluster into practical and achievable military objectives.
The Israeli lack of preparedness for, and weak initial response to, the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 encompassed four key failures. But its consequences may bring far-reaching political changes and internal reforms.
On Oct. 19, the Pentagon press secretary confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia targeted the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, in the Red Sea. The USS Carney reportedly intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones without sustaining any damage or casualties. Although the Houthis have yet to claim responsibility for the attack, the drones and missiles were likely fired from north-western, Houthi-held positions in Hodeida and Hajjah governorates on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and were headed “north,” most likely toward Israel.
U.S. security cooperation has undergone monumental changes over the past six years.
There is political logic behind the Israeli government’s declaration that it will ‘wipe Hamas off the Earth’.
The Israeli public want to see Hamas destroyed once and for all, given the unprecedented mass murder it just committed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his colleagues, already under intense pressure for allowing the attack to take place (and for putting Israel in a vulnerable position by pursuing anti-democratic policies) were compelled to make big promises. Their maximalist goals reflect the stakes in their fight for political survival.
China has long sought to brand itself as a “neutral” player and force for peace in the Middle East and elsewhere, willing and able to talk to “all sides.” Beijing’s nascent ambition to play the role of peacemaker and its potential to shape regional events was on display when it succeeded last March in brokering the détente between Riyadh and Tehran. The Israel-Hamas war offers no such low-hanging fruit. On the contrary, it poses a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy — and an opportunity to examine some of our own, perhaps faulty assumptions.
As the war rages on between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the role of Iran will remain a central factor. Tehran is not only Israel’s top regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid and training for Hamas. But what is its endgame? As with all stakeholders in this war, Tehran’s calculations are evolving and shaped by events on the ground in Gaza.