Research & Commentary Results

It is time for Western leaders to deal with Russia as it is and not as they want it to be. There is no room for them to back down now, as it will simply increase Putin’s appetite. The cost of providing a face-saving exit to Putin is much higher than that of his ultimate humiliation on the battlefield.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, where things go from here is far from certain, but it is worth considering the range of possibilities. These three scenarios highlight the potential challenges and opportunities that Putin, Erdoğan, and, to a lesser degree, Zelenskyy may face depending on how the conflict plays out, as well as what is at stake for other countries in the Black Sea region.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

On Feb. 28, Turkey triggered the Montreux Convention, not used since World War II, and closed the Turkish Straits to military ships. This one move interrupted Russia’s maritime logistical supply line to Syria, interfered with its ability to rotate naval assets in the Mediterranean, and prevented Moscow from bringing additional warships to the Black Sea. Russia can no longer supply its Syria operation or deliver defense exports to its customers using navy ships. However, close observation of traffic through the Turkish Straits reveals that Russia is continuing its naval operations in the Mediterranean and Black seas.

The tiny country may be next on Russia’s list. Iulia-Sabina Joja interviews Moldova’s foreign minister, Nicu Popescu.

Since late September 2021, Tehran and Baku have engaged in a process of de-escalation, largely focused on economic cooperation and regional transportation links. Such efforts should be welcomed, but underlying geopolitical tensions, especially the Iranian-Turkish competition for influence in the South Caucasus, can still derail them at any moment.

As the conventional war in Ukraine continues and military operations intensify, Russian President Vladimir Putin is wrestling with the need to maintain his fight in Ukraine while demonstrating to the Russian people that he is winning in the following three key areas: land, security, and identity.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Over the course of 2020 and 2021, groundbreaking investigations revealed in stark detail Israeli authorities’ intensifying use of surveillance and predictive technologies to police and control Palestinians. Subjecting Palestinians to such scrutiny from security and military apparatuses narrows their expressive spaces and plunges them into a state of constant anxiety. This practice also carries out a commercial purpose: Occupied Palestine effectively functions as an open-air laboratory for Israel to test techniques of espionage and surveillance before selling them to repressive regimes around the world.

Syria provided Putin with the perfect training ground for Ukraine. Russia is now using the same techniques that it first employed in Syria in its reporting of the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, long a target of the Kremlin’s information operations, is being flooded with disinformation from Moscow amid the invasion of Ukraine launched on February 24. Prior to the war, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin gave a lengthy history lesson in his televised speech, claiming that Ukraine was created by Bolshevik Russia, and that it should not exist as an autonomous nation. This conflict has already taken an immense human toll and triggered the largest intra-European refugee crisis since the Second World War. And yet the human impact of the war, the full implications of which remain to be seen, extends beyond the physical world into the virtual realm. As missiles strike Ukrainian cities, a parallel war is being fought online — not only in Russia and Ukraine, but around the world, as the Russian state strives to disseminate its messaging. On the home front, Putin has successfully quarantined his people within an information vacuum through unprecedented crackdowns. In addition to Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, the Kremlin has blocked access to the most popular independent media outlets, forcing hundreds of journalists to flee the country. In response, EU officials have banned content from the Russian-state-owned media outlets Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik across the European Union.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

In a room at the old Mosul Museum, a young Moslawi singer closes his eyes in a moment of rapture. Singing next to the museum’s modernist 1974 incarnation still being restored after ISIS’s pillage of it treasures, his voice lifts the hearts of listeners.

Iulia-Sabina Joja and Charles Lister discuss the parallels between the wars in Ukraine and Syria, the similarities of Russia’s tactics in both conflicts, and what the recent history in Syria may signal for Ukraine in the months ahead.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.