Why President-elect Pezeshkian’s focus on Arab ties makes sense for an Iran facing monumental socio-economic challenges
The conventional wisdom is that Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is yet another bit of window dressing put up by the “deep state” in Tehran, which effectively calls the shots on the most contentious foreign policy files. But it might just be that Pezeshkian’s sudden emergence as president was orchestrated from the outset as a pretext for the Iranian regime to change course.
The geopolitical implications of Houthi attacks and Israeli retaliation
The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.
Key takeaways for NATO and the Middle East from the Washington Summit Declaration
At the Washington Summit, NATO member states mostly focused on efforts to counter Russia and to support Ukraine. However, the 2024 summit communiqué also addresses non-Euro-Atlantic risks and opportunities, based on the idea that “conflict, fragility and instability” elsewhere directly affects NATO security.
Iran’s foreign policy has generally been characterized by continuity in the postrevolutionary period, yet its motives have transformed over time. This research paper argues that Islamic fundamentalism goaded and motivated foreign policy in the first decade of the Islamic Republic of Iran. After the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country’s foreign policy maintained a fundamentalist posture, but was forcefully driven by policies to guarantee its political survival.
Central Asian states look to Iran as they seek to expand regional transit corridors
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, it prompted the Central Asian states, and others, to reconsider Iran’s potential role as a transit country. In a little more than two years, Central Asia’s view of Iran has changed from international pariah to key link in lucrative trade routes.
What’s at stake as Iran heads to a presidential runoff?
On June 28, Iran held its third election in the span of just four months. A fourth contest, a presidential runoff, is scheduled for July 5. And yet the opposite of election fervor has gripped the country. The June 28 election made history by setting a new record low for turnout, with official data suggesting 39.9% of voters cast a ballot. Participation is unlikely to rise in the second round, on July 5, but where turnout will end up is the million-dollar question.
In its 2022 Strategic Concept, NATO declared the Black Sea Region (BSR) of strategic importance for the Alliance, yet this recognition has never translated into NATO developing a proper strategy toward its critical southeastern flank. That glaring gap must be addressed right away.
Polling on Iran highlights key social and political issues ahead of presidential vote
The latest survey from Stasis Consulting estimates that voter turnout in the June 28 Iranian presidential election is likely to exceed 50%. Despite the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi, Iranians do not believe his passing will cause any significant challenges for the country. Iranians view addressing youth concerns as a top priority for the next president, alongside dealing with the country’s long-standing economic challenges. In addition, there is widespread opposition to the way in which the government is dealing with the mandatory hijab and a majority of Iranians dislike the Guidance Patrol and support making the wearing of the veil optional.
Change isn’t on the ballot as Iranians head to the polls
With just a few days left before Iranians head to the polls, it is clear that the June 28 presidential election is not exciting the country’s voters. After several televised debates, some of which have been mildly contentious, the six men in the race have failed to energize the public. In fact, a major “no vote” campaign has been under way on social media and elsewhere, aimed at convincing Iranians to stay home.
Alex Vatanka (Director, MEI’s Iran Program) and Ali Afshari (Iranian political analyst and pro-democracy activist) discuss Iran’s snap presidential elections, set to be held on June 28th, following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. The 63-year-old regime loyalist was widely viewed as a leading potential successor to the Islamic Republic’s 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The elections come as Iran faces a number of challenges both at home and abroad, ranging from long-running domestic economic troubles and preparations for an eventual leadership transition to the regional reverberations of the ongoing war in Gaza and the tit-for-tat exchange of missile and drone strikes with Israel in April.
Libya remains the key for NATO to counter Russian malign activities in Africa
Eight years ago, few would have predicted that Russia could move in as quickly and comprehensively throughout Africa as it has done. Now there is widespread recognition of the threat posed by the destabilizing Russian expansion in Africa, to NATO, its members, and the African region.
