The Limits of Biden’s Middle East Diplomacy: An Assessment of US Policy, April-July 2024
In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.
Why President-elect Pezeshkian’s focus on Arab ties makes sense for an Iran facing monumental socio-economic challenges
The conventional wisdom is that Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is yet another bit of window dressing put up by the “deep state” in Tehran, which effectively calls the shots on the most contentious foreign policy files. But it might just be that Pezeshkian’s sudden emergence as president was orchestrated from the outset as a pretext for the Iranian regime to change course.
Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv illustrates unstoppable “democratization” of high-technological capabilities
The recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, which struck an Israeli apartment building near the Embassy of the United States, killing at least one person, should surprise no one. And the fact Israel’s state-of-the-art air defense could not prevent it will probably embolden future attempts.
The geopolitical implications of Houthi attacks and Israeli retaliation
The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.
The situation in the Red Sea is not getting better
The current situation is not only intolerable – it is unsustainable. It is time to recognize that the Houthis, with strong and persistent support from Iran, are in a position to hold not only the US but virtually the entire global system hostage.
Key takeaways for NATO and the Middle East from the Washington Summit Declaration
At the Washington Summit, NATO member states mostly focused on efforts to counter Russia and to support Ukraine. However, the 2024 summit communiqué also addresses non-Euro-Atlantic risks and opportunities, based on the idea that “conflict, fragility and instability” elsewhere directly affects NATO security.
Iran’s foreign policy has generally been characterized by continuity in the postrevolutionary period, yet its motives have transformed over time. This research paper argues that Islamic fundamentalism goaded and motivated foreign policy in the first decade of the Islamic Republic of Iran. After the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country’s foreign policy maintained a fundamentalist posture, but was forcefully driven by policies to guarantee its political survival.
Central Asian states look to Iran as they seek to expand regional transit corridors
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, it prompted the Central Asian states, and others, to reconsider Iran’s potential role as a transit country. In a little more than two years, Central Asia’s view of Iran has changed from international pariah to key link in lucrative trade routes.
What’s at stake as Iran heads to a presidential runoff?
On June 28, Iran held its third election in the span of just four months. A fourth contest, a presidential runoff, is scheduled for July 5. And yet the opposite of election fervor has gripped the country. The June 28 election made history by setting a new record low for turnout, with official data suggesting 39.9% of voters cast a ballot. Participation is unlikely to rise in the second round, on July 5, but where turnout will end up is the million-dollar question.
In its 2022 Strategic Concept, NATO declared the Black Sea Region (BSR) of strategic importance for the Alliance, yet this recognition has never translated into NATO developing a proper strategy toward its critical southeastern flank. That glaring gap must be addressed right away.
Polling on Iran highlights key social and political issues ahead of presidential vote
The latest survey from Stasis Consulting estimates that voter turnout in the June 28 Iranian presidential election is likely to exceed 50%. Despite the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi, Iranians do not believe his passing will cause any significant challenges for the country. Iranians view addressing youth concerns as a top priority for the next president, alongside dealing with the country’s long-standing economic challenges. In addition, there is widespread opposition to the way in which the government is dealing with the mandatory hijab and a majority of Iranians dislike the Guidance Patrol and support making the wearing of the veil optional.
