Research & Commentary Results

Many of the divisions in the Arab World today are ideological and revolve around narratives — carefully constructed ontological representations of both how the world works and how it is supposed to work conforming to clearly set out interests and values. While the old sectarian narratives might still play an underlying role, what divides Arabs from Morocco to Oman are different grand-strategic visions of the region’s future after the Arab Spring.

OPEC+ nations have ended speculation about whether they would continue oil production cuts by agreeing to a nine-month extension. Led by the global petroleum powers Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group agreed on July 2 to extend the current level of cuts until the second quarter of 2020.

Reports that the UAE, a key member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, has decided to draw down and reposition its troops should be welcomed and taken seriously. It is not a small or symbolic move, but rather a serious, strategic, and thoughtful military and political decision. If reciprocated by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, it could serve as the long-awaited breakthrough in the five-year-old Yemen war.

It is easy to overlook the fact that food security could be an issue of concern in the Gulf Cooperation Council. After all, its member states have some of the world’s highest per capita income levels. Food supplies in the Gulf are normally abundant and stable. Were they to be disrupted, however, it could lead to food security challenges and a chain of adverse consequences for human security throughout the region.

One hallmark of Sudan’s most recent protests has been the protestors’ fierce determination that the military not be their partner in the struggle for democratization. Some GCC states, however, are getting involved in Sudan, using their financial means to influence the country’s future. In doing so, they risk making it the Arab world’s next theater for intra-GCC rivalry.

International attention on the Yemen conflict remains focused heavily on the humanitarian dimensions of the crisis, Saudi-Iranian competition for advantage there, and the UN’s fitful efforts to return the parties to the negotiating table. But another aspect of the conflict may have more significant long-term consequences for both Yemenis and the international community: the declining relevance of Sana’a at the center of a unified Yemeni state and the increasing local autonomy in large parts of the country.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Rauf Mammadov, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s announcement that it has exceeded its enriched uranium limit, Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400s missile defense system over American objections, an Emirati announcement that it will downsize military involvement in Yemen, the resumption of intra-Afghan peace talks, Russia’s continuing embrace of OPEC+ oil production cuts, and the emergence of potential threats to Tunisia’s democracy.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Ruba Husari, Guney Yildiz, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and John Calabrese provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the failure of the twelfth rounds of Syria peace talks in Astana, negotiations over Yemen’s strategic port of Hodeida, a new report on Iraq’s oil production potential, ongoing US-Turkey talks about a buffer zone in Syria, Egypt’s recently passed constitutional amendments, and Beijing’s second Belt and Road Forum.

South Korea’s experience with the current global refugee crisis began in 2018 with the arrival of around 550 Yemeni citizens on Jeju Island using the visa-free entry system. Before even developing a clear understanding of the asylum applicants, much of the Korean public hastily leaped to fearful conclusions about the new arrivals inspired by Europe’s experience with Islamic terrorism and populist anti-refugee rhetoric found in other countries. The impact of this discourse has brought significant attention and public concern regarding Muslim refugees in Korea. This article examines the Korean debate over accepting Yemeni refugees by detailing how the Korean public and government have responded since 2018. It traces the arrival of Yemeni refugees, how different Korean groups reacted, and concludes with a discussion of what efforts are needed to resolve the dispute.

Yemen’s strategic and oil-rich eastern governorate of Hadramawt stands at a critical turning point, as feuds between competing political and military groups are coming to a head. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia are likely to reach a political compromise, local political groups and militias may not so agreeable.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.

New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts

Paul Salem
President

The ongoing civil conflict in Yemen is a continuation of a cycle of violence, political upheaval, and institutional collapse, caused by the failure of Yemeni society to address and resolve the popular anger and frustration arising from political marginalization, economic disenfranchisement, and the effects of an extractive, corrupt, rentier state.

Power dynamics between the major global and regional powers have indirectly influenced the civil wars currently plaguing the Middle East. The distribution of power caused by end of the Cold War facilitated the creation of two opposing camps that later competed for regional primacy in the civil wars of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Unlike other cases of repression against Muslims around the world, such as Myanmar, the Gulf monarchies have been silent about the “cultural cleansing” taking place in China’s Xinjiang Province.