Research & Commentary Results

As important as it is for Ukraine to work with individual partners and receive their long-term support, the key security guarantor for Ukraine can only be NATO and its Article V umbrella. No arrangement other than full NATO membership will entirely remove the threat of a Russian re-invasion, at least so long as Putin remains in power.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s interview on Wednesday night with Bret Baier of Fox News didn’t break news or produce controversy. But that wasn’t the point of his appearance on one of America’s top networks.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

The groundbreaking March 2023 normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran could potentially reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. It has already paved the way for de-securitization and the resumption of diplomatic relations. However, critical security issues remain unresolved, casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of the process. Capitalizing on this rare opportunity, Riyadh and Tehran should move forward to finalize a comprehensive non-aggression pact as the foundation for their future security relations.

For all the hype about the potential normalisation of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it remains vastly unclear whether the United States — the indispensable enabler and guarantor of such a deal — is willing or able to accept the kingdom’s conditions to reach an agreement.

In return for its cooperation, Saudi Arabia wants from Washington a formal defence pact, assistance in building a civilian nuclear programme, and expedited access to high-end US weapons, including F-35 fifth-generation fighter aircraft.

Moldova is a country with a rich tapestry of multiple ethnic identities and linguistic traditions, but one where policymakers have long grappled with the complexities of preserving minority rights, fostering national unity, and addressing regional autonomy through engagement with the Gagauz minority.

At the start of 2023, optimism was high that China would see a rapid recovery in consumer spending and an acceleration in GDP growth. Since then, however, the world’s second-largest economy has been in the doldrums. China’s ailing economy is a problem not just for China but for the entire world. A prolonged slowdown or a sudden financial crash, were it to occur, would ripple across global markets — including the countries of the Middle East, whose economies have become increasingly intertwined with that of China.

This study on community leadership and social resilience factors in Moldova in the context of the war in Ukraine is based on in-country interviews with 15 Moldovan experts and community leaders, conducted in May-August 2023.

The war in Ukraine has turned policymakers’ eyes back toward the Euro-Atlantic arena and highlighted the need to reinvigorate NATO’s defense-industrial base. This analysis describes the macro policy environment that shapes the current relationship between Romania and the United States, and considers what steps the U.S. could take to improve Romania’s integration with the Euro-Atlantic defense-industrial base.

The following analysis provides an overview of Poland’s and Romania’s engagement with NATO priorities on its eastern front line since 2022 and outlines their advocacy for increased regional security in multilateral formats. Drawing on the expertise of over two dozen Polish and Romanian security experts, it offers recommendations for an enhanced CEE security strategy for the United States, the leading member of the NATO alliance.

Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.

On this week’s episode, MEI’s Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. 

While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.

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The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, is steadily shrinking. The lack of a solid legal framework surrounding the management of the sea among the littoral states, and particularly by Iran and Russia, has created a degree of ambivalence about where and how to limit ambitions related to oil, gas, fishing, and other environmentally harmful economic activities. If the impacts are not appropriately addressed, the consequences could be irreversible. But efforts to deal with shared environmental problems and maintain the Caspian Sea could also serve as an area for mutually beneficial cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, with a positive impact for other littoral states. 

As the Wagner Group has an entrenched military presence in Syria, Libya, and Sudan, the evisceration of its senior leadership will have serious repercussions for Russia’s influence in the MENA region. Wagner’s military contractors are unlikely to depart, since they guard strategically valuable oil and mining facilities; but they are likely to now be swiftly integrated into the regular Russian Armed Forces.

Of all the challenges to Saudi Vision 2030, arguably none is greater than Iran’s threat to Saudi national security. To succeed, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must protect the kingdom, which will require not only fortifying its defenses against further Iranian and Houthi attacks but also establishing a level of deterrence against Tehran.