“You’re all going to die”: Persuading Pakistan’s generals to see the light
“You’re all going to die,” the diminutive, senior U.S. intelligence official observed in matter-of-fact fashion to her stunned Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) hosts. Her rather blunt appraisal was uncharacteristic of the engagement to which the senior Pakistani officials had grown accustomed and cut to the chase: the consequences of decades of Pakistan’s support to the Taliban, violent Kashmiri liberation groups, radical madrassas, and extremist local political groups were coming home to roost.
As Kabul falls to the Taliban, it’s safe to say that this is without a doubt the most significant day for al-Qaeda since 9/11. After two decades of relentless counterterrorism pressure from the United States and allies, al-Qaeda’s central leadership was in dire straits just weeks ago.
Weeks before the official U.S. military withdrawal, Afghanistan is unraveling rapidly as the Taliban continue their swift military advance. They now control more than two-thirds of the country and half of the provincial capitals. With the government’s hold on Kabul in doubt, the Biden administration has dispatched troops to evacuate U.S. citizens from the country. We asked experts and scholars from across MEI to weigh in with their thoughts on the situation and what it means for the country, the wider region, and key international players.
A Taliban victory would be a major win for the global jihadist movement
The Afghan government appears to be in a state of precipitous collapse. At least a dozen provincial capitals have fallen to the Taliban in a week. The Taliban now control around 66% of the country.
Now is the time for difficult conversations on Afghanistan
The debate about whether Afghanistan was worth thousands of U.S. lives and a trillion U.S. taxpayer dollars should have occurred before those lives were lost and the money was spent. The decision to pull out our remaining 2,500 troops was made after all of that was done. That minimal number of troops preserved everything we fought for in the last two decades. We had significantly reduced the risk to our forces and the expense to the U.S. taxpayer.
The Pro-Al Qaeda Indonesian Connection with HTS in Syria: Security Implications
Despite being largely low-key and limited in nature, ties between pro-Al Qaeda jihadists operating in Indonesia and Syria respectively continue to exist. Recent activity involving Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other militant Indonesian groups illustrates the potential security risks from this nexus, which should not be overlooked.
The United States and Pakistan have had a complex and often disappointing “love-hate” relationship since 1947 — one severely tested during the 20-year U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan. We believe the time has come for serious policy consideration of whether and how both nations can achieve a more strategically beneficial and sustainable post-intervention relationship between the American and Pakistani governments and their populations
Hezbollah’s Regional Activities in Support of Iran’s Proxy Networks
As a Lebanese actor ideologically tied to Iran, Hezbollah has multiple allegiances and objectives that do not always align symmetrically. Hezbollah’s regional activities are a reflection of the group’s increasingly close alignment with Iran, rather than the interests of the Lebanese state or citizenry. Today, Hezbollah’s regional adventurism is most pronounced in its expeditionary forces deployed in Syria and elsewhere in the region, but no less important are the group’s advanced training regimen for other Shi’a militias aligned with Iran, its expansive illicit financing activities across the region, and its procurement, intelligence, cyber, and disinformation activities. Together, these underscore the scale and scope of the group’s all-in approach to transforming from one of several Lebanese militias into a regional player acting at Iran’s behest.
After Afghanistan: Western militaries and the rise of new strategic threats
The withdrawal from Afghanistan marks the end of a historic chapter. It involves more than just the conclusion of a drawn-out international military engagement in Afghanistan. Rather, it signals the end of a decades-long phase in which Western militaries placed the broader Middle East and the fight against international terrorism at the center of their strategic attention. With competition between the great powers on the rise, Western militaries have realized their current vulnerabilities vis-à-vis near-peer competitors and the need to shift gears.
The “Palestinian exception”: Social media censorship of Palestinian activism
In a landscape of suppression and retaliation against Palestinian journalists and activists at the hands of Israel, social media networks have been at once critical organizing platforms and tools for exacerbating censorship.
The Abraham Accords and their cyber implications: How Iran is unifying the region’s cyberspace
On Sept. 15, 2020, the world witnessed a new era of Israeli-Arab relations as the UAE and Bahrain opened diplomatic relations with Israel, in what is known as the Abraham Accords. Unlike the Israeli-Egyptian or the Israeli-Jordanian peace deals, which aimed to end direct military confrontations, the Abraham Accords seek to maximize common interests and address security issues to form a new front against Iranian threats. As Biden’s administration shows a willingness to return to some form of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the joint cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states is becoming more visible than ever, particularly in cyberspace, where they share a common enemy.
Sarah Johansson and Mohammed Soliman join guest host Mike Sexton to discuss the various legal, technical, and environmental challenges of cryptocurrencies in the region, among others.
The 5G divide in the Middle East: Further disparity between the Gulf and its neighbors
The 5G technology revolution is poised to change society irreversibly in the Middle East. The evolution of the Internet of Things (IoT) powered by 5G networks could prove life-enhancing. Already, the Gulf countries have led the way in adopting 5G technology in the region and the rollout of 5G showcases the Gulf’s new role as a leader in digital technology. Although the Gulf countries have made strides to be global tech leaders, their neighbors in the region seriously lag behind in their abilities to adopt large-scale 5G technology. This disparity will further deepen the divides in development between the Gulf and the rest of MENA. Looking to the future, the Gulf will surely pull ahead as the tech hub of the region, but there are still important benefits for the rest of the region to reap as they slowly adopt next generation technology.
Since the normalization of UAE-Israel relations was first announced, much of the international commentary only focused on the deal’s political and diplomatic significance. However, the deal will create a new digital order in the Middle East, one in which Israel and the UAE will partner more closely than ever in developing emerging technologies and cyber capabilities. This cooperation will be at the forefront of this UAE-Israel tech order.
