Dr. George Gavrilis of the Hollings Center for International Dialogue will serve as the discussant. The talk will focus on Younis's recent publication in the Turkish Policy Quarterly on the role of Turkey in a changing MENA region and the potential influence it can have on the process of democratization in Egypt. Younis will also share some insights from Gallup's polling in other Arab Spring countries on the public's perceptions of the challenges facing their nations following the uprisings of 2011.
Let us assume that nobody will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, at least for quite a while. There is no Iranian nuclear test in the offing. Until now, the inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have uncovered no diversion of declared stocks of uranium for use in a nuclear explosive device. Of course, clandestine activities could always take place in some remote stretch of the vast Iranian territory, unknown to the inspectors of the Vienna Agency.
Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran's Nuclear Program?
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described upcoming talks with Iran over its nuclear program as "the last chance to resolve the crisis." Yet as the final hour approaches for an opportunity to avert a military attack, there are few apparent signs Iran will make compromises. Recent parliamentary elections have only strengthened the power of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardliners in his inner circle who aspire to make the Islamic republic a regional superpower.
Russia's relations with Syria – even under the Assad regime – have been more troubled than current press accounts of Moscow-Damascus ties indicate. But despite the internal and external opposition to the Assad regime that has risen up over the past year, the Russian government has defended it staunchly via its Security Council veto and other means. In his talk, Mark Katz will discuss why Moscow supports the Assad regime so strongly as well as why it is willing to incur the costs of doing so.
Are Iran’s leaders rational actors? This question matters when justifying any decision by Israel to preempt Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. An Iranian regime seen as driven to destroy the Jewish state has to be dealt with differently than one whose objectives are mediated by calculations of costs and benefits. Deterrents that would be normally expected to restrain a state would not work with an irrational Iran.
Reflections on the Role of American Universities in the Middle East
American higher education has been present in the region since 1866, when the American University of Beirut set the precedent for successful localization by planting roots and adapting to local society. Today, Arab governments themselves often direct and fund the cross-cultural educational export process, with far-reaching economic and social goals. For example, Qatar's U.S. branch campuses are an integral part of its broad education reform strategy designed to transform the country into a knowledge producing society. The UAE, in contrast, has adopted a business-model view of U.S.
Following last week's Russian-Chinese veto of an Arab-backed U.N. resolution, the international community is struggling to find ways to stem the ongoing violence and bloodshed. European states are considering a fresh round of sanctions, while Turkey says it's preparing a new initiative to address the crisis. Nerguizian, Slim and Yacoubian will discuss the international community's options, as well as examine the status of the Syrian opposition and the role of regional players.
Reflections on Palestinian Unity, the Statehood Bid, and Prospects for Peace
In the wake of the February 6 announcement that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will head an interim unity government there is renewed hope for political cooperation between rival parties Fatah and Hamas. The formation of the unity government however threatens U.S. aid to Palestine, as the United States has said that it refuses to send money to Hamas, which it considers a terrorist organization. The PLO's continued pursuit of statehood recognition in the UN Security Council has also isolated it from the United States even as it earned popular and international support.
