Iraq’s Kurdistan Region will hold elections for its devolved parliament for the first time since 2018, on Oct. 20. The polls are more than two years late and come at a time of major economic and political challenges for the semi-autonomous zone.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing regional tensions. This assault, reportedly involving 180 missiles, was the Islamic Republic of Iran’s largest yet against Israel, targeting military and security sites in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas in Tehran and Beirut. Iranian officials framed the attack as an act of self-defense, warning that further Israeli actions could provoke even stronger retaliation from Tehran.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The United States is trapped in a reactive Middle East policy approach of its own making one year into a regional war that continues to expand.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Before Tunisian voters have their say in the presidential election on Oct. 6, state institutions have already had their say. The security services, judicial authorities, and the High Independent Electoral Authority (ISIE) have either obstructed or officially barred over a dozen potential candidates from running. Of the three eligible candidates officially approved by the ISIE, only President Kais Saied and former Saied supporter Zouhair Maghzaoui remain outside of prison. Candidate Ayachi Zammel was arrested on Sept. 6. Many other potential candidates attempted to run from prison or were jailed for alleged technical violations of election laws. By restricting the list of potential candidates effectively to two, state institutions have embraced their historically paternalistic, modernizing role toward a distrusted citizenry.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
The question of whether Armenia’s recent shift away from reliance on Russia is reversible is central to understanding its democratization trajectory. In recent years, Armenia’s dependency on Russia for security and economic stability has been severely tested, particularly during the 2020 Second Karabakh War and subsequent Azerbaijani incursions on sovereign Armenian territory, where Russia’s lack of support led to widespread disillusionment. This discontent has spurred Armenia to diversify its security, economic, and diplomatic ties, with a notable strengthening of relations with the United States. However, the sustainability of this shift remains uncertain, as it hinges on various societal factors and internal dynamics.
Azerbaijan’s takeover of Karabakh in September 2023, while a disruptive event, has opened the window for renewed dialogue to peacefully resolve the longstanding tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the ongoing negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive peace deal in the near term, they could alter the strategic calculus of key actors in the region. The most likely and consequential outcome of the talks will be a peace framework agreement that could rebalance the regional status quo, potentially leading to a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan seeks to establish itself as a major actor in the global energy transition space as it prepares to host the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, on November 11-22. COP29 offers many opportunities to improve US-Azerbaijani energy cooperation, including by coordinating the United States’ clean energy technology goals with Azerbaijan’s renewable energy revolution.
A reflection on the state of conflict and political change in the Levant by Middle East Institute’s Vice President for International Engagement.
After the Cold War, the Romanian government chose to slim down its sizeable defense industry, but it essentially maintained its state-backed structure, personnel, and management, thus producing a thoroughly inefficient system. Today, Romania retains a proclivity to purchase Western, and particularly American, defense equipment; but it has often neglected any thorough assessments of life cycle costs or real force design considerations.