Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
A version of this article was originally published on the Substack “Thinking Middle East.”
The Iranian strike against Israel was a first of its kind. Its mere occurrence sets a precedent that will have a long-term impact and require Israel to weigh new considerations when planning future military operations against Iranian assets.
Though Tehran continues to engage the government in Kabul in a pragmatic fashion, Iran and the Taliban are not traditional friends or allies; they share an uneasy relationship. There is a sectarian angle to their differences and a long-standing dispute over water resources. Yet Iran has sought to normalize relations due to broader geopolitical considerations, security concerns, and perceived economic opportunities.
Iran is a key stakeholder in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Tehran does not have a deciding vote on the outcome of the current war in Gaza, but it does have plenty of capacity to shape the future course of the conflict. Iran is, after all, among the top backers of Hamas, both in terms of diplomatic support and as a supplier of military materiel and knowhow.
Six months since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and subsequent outbreak of war in Gaza, the deadly and devastating conflict looks no closer to concluding. Is it still possible to achieve a sustainable cessation of hostilities and restart the conflict-resolution process? To get there, what are the incentives and disincentives that could be constructed for the two main combatants, Israel and Hamas?
On this week’s episode, Murat Somer – Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul’s Ozyegin University – and MEI Turkey Program Director Gonul Tol join MEI Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor to discuss the main opposition party’s surprising victory in Turkey’s March 31 local elections. In what some are calling a “red wave,” the Republican People’s Party (or CHP) notched up victories in both major cities and smaller towns and villages, winning control of Turkey’s 5 largest metropolitan areas and 35 of its 81 provincial municipalities.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
On March 12, the United States Department of the Treasury sanctioned four individuals for supporting the Iran-linked al-Ashtar Brigades in Bahrain. This US announcement might suggest that Iranian-Bahraini relations are about to take a nose-dive. But in reality, that is unlikely to happen — at least not while Iranian-Saudi détente continues.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the threat of sea mines to maritime traffic in the region has become exponentially more acute. The Turkish-Romanian-Bulgarian trilateral minesweeping mission is a welcome sign of regional willingness to cooperate in this space and could, with the right incentives and sufficient political will, open the door to the establishment of a NATO Black Sea Fleet.
The results of the March 1 election for Iran’s Assembly of Experts hold great importance for understanding how the regime is preparing for the selection of the next supreme leader. The major responsibility of this 88-member body is to designate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor, either after his death or if he becomes incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
In discussions on Iran’s future in a post-Khamenei era, one crucial player in the transition to a new supreme leader is often overlooked: the inner circle surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, primarily operating within the framework of the Office of the Supreme Leader.
This article breaks down five key takeaways from the February 2024 survey conducted by Stasis Consulting ahead of Iran’s upcoming March 1 parliamentary elections.