Monday Briefing – Death of a president: Short-term stability in Iran could give way to a politically unpredictable intra-hardline feud
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Following a year of protests and as the war with Hamas and Hezbollah enters its eighth month, the domestic scene in Israel looks poised for a political transition. Pro-democracy mayors and city councils across the country have grown increasingly influential when it comes to safeguarding and advancing liberal values. They are now better positioned and more motivated to make an impact on Israeli national politics, particularly as early elections look ever more likely.
A year after the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two countries are working to ease regional tensions in the Middle East in exchange for promises of improved bilateral cooperation. But strains persist in the relationship between Riyadh and Tehran, and the two capitals are using the Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which includes members from 57 Muslim countries, to try to bridge their differences.
Strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on the Arabian Sea, Gwadar, once a derelict port, was revitalized as part of the broader development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and declared fully operational in 2021. Can a renewed focus on the Gwadar port and the socio-economic and security situation of the surrounding region help Islamabad and Beijing rescue CPEC from failure?
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Israeli leaders insist that the extreme destruction in the Gaza Strip is unavoidable given Hamas’ use of “human shields” and the fact that the militant group has embedded itself among the civilian population and routinely operates from civilian structures like hospitals and schools. But far from explaining the current devastation, the questionable “human shields” charge has become a way to shield Israel from legitimate scrutiny and accountability.
In recent months, Israel’s situation in the Red Sea has grown increasingly challenging in the security, economic, and diplomatic spheres. But the country is in a better position to meet these challenges and threats by leveraging the strategic regional partnerships it has developed over the past several years.
The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran has sparked concerns about a potential shift in Tehran’s strategy toward full weaponization of its nuclear program. Under the current circumstances though, maintaining its status as a threshold nuclear power is likely to be Iran’s chosen strategy, in line with its broader shift from strategic patience to active deterrence.
After Hamas’s unprecedented attack against Israel on Oct. 7, the siren song of Saudi-Israeli normalization risks wrecking the US-Saudi relationship against the rocks of stubborn geopolitical realities. An interim less-for-less approach in US-Saudi negotiations that doesn’t immediately require Senate approval nor is beholden to a much less certain Israeli-Palestinian peace process could set the stage for an even more consequential “mega deal” down the line.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
In early April, a highly publicized trilateral meeting involving the United States, the European Union, and Armenia was widely believed to mark a turning point in Yerevan’s relationship with the West. If it comes to pass, it will present Baku with its own critical decision: whether to abandon multi-vectorism and more fully align with Russia or the West.
This month marks the 45th anniversary of the founding of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Mohsen Sazegara, a non-resident scholar with MEI’s Iran Program, was one of the group’s founders and a member of its first board of commanders. He later became a journalist and a reformist political activist. He was arrested and imprisoned four times before ultimately leaving Iran. He was interviewed by MEI in early May.
March 26, 2024, marked the 45th anniversary of the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. Over the years, this bilateral settlement has proven its stability and resilience, despite a series of crucial challenges. Yet the Begin-Sadat legacy, and the benefits it brings, is now in jeopardy.
The recent blow-for-blow strikes by Iran and Israel are bound to result in some introspection in Tehran. It is the first time since the launch of the “Axis of Resistance” some 20 years ago that Tehran has to choose whether it wants to center its entire national security strategy around the conflict with Israel. Going forward, Tehran could choose to handle this conflict through political and diplomatic means rather than via the Axis of Resistance.
It was no surprise to see Pakistan’s new prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, choose Saudi Arabia as the destination of his first official visit. What was more surprising, however, was the joint announcement that emerged from the trip, which called on Pakistan and India to resolve their outstanding disputes, especially the Jammu and Kashmir problem. There are several factors that have impelled Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to take on the tricky task of mediating the protracted rivalry between the two key South Asian states.