Arash Ghafouri and Alex Vatanka break down key takeaways from a new survey conducted by Stasis Consulting among Iranians living in Iran on Tehran’s foreign policy, regional influence, and diplomatic relations.
The results of the latest public opinion survey from Stasis Consulting provide key insights into how Iranians view Tehran’s foreign policy, regional influence, and diplomatic relations at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East, including how they perceive the economic costs of Iran’s current approach and its support for its regional proxy groups.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing regional tensions. This assault, reportedly involving 180 missiles, was the Islamic Republic of Iran’s largest yet against Israel, targeting military and security sites in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas in Tehran and Beirut. Iranian officials framed the attack as an act of self-defense, warning that further Israeli actions could provoke even stronger retaliation from Tehran.
A year ago, in the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, U.S. President Joe Biden traveled to Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reiterate his administration’s unwavering support for Israel. Biden’s embrace of Netanyahu was rooted in the belief that only positive inducements and constant reassurances—both militarily and diplomatically—could restrain Israel’s actions in Gaza. In reality, though, this “bear hug” diplomacy has resulted in an unmitigated failure.
Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has not only caused a succession crisis for Hezbollah, but has also highlighted the problem of succession for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash earlier this year, Nasrallah’s assassination has scrambled the dynamics of the supreme leadership transition with an aging 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the helm, and is likely the reason his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a key figure in the Office of the Supreme Leader, has recently emerged from the shadows.
A cycle of retaliation against energy assets, though far from a guaranteed outcome, would be to the detriment of all and the benefit of none.
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Israeli society still seeks to fully understand what happened on October 7, while many in Israel yearn for a new and trustworthy political leadership
The devastating details of what has happened in Gaza since the war started have been widely covered. Absent from the discussion, however, are questions about what led to the war, what went wrong on the policy front, and, more importantly, whether this man-made tragedy could have been averted. Without understanding Gaza, plans for the “day after” may very well result in the further mismanagement of the already devastated enclave.
The assassination of Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, marks an inflection point that will redefine the security landscape of the Middle East. His deputy, Naim Qassem, has pledged “continued resistance,” claiming Hezbollah was steadfast and will not retreat, while Israel has pressed ahead with a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. The United States must act decisively to ensure this is the last war between Israel and Lebanon.
After Iran’s second direct missile attack on Israel in less than six months, all eyes are on Israel’s next move. Reports suggest that Jerusalem plans a massive revenge that might include striking Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities and other strategic sites.
The United States is trapped in a reactive Middle East policy approach of its own making one year into a regional war that continues to expand.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
The killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah along with the rapid degradation of Hezbollah’s power over the past two weeks signals a tectonic shift in the Middle East.