Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
While most analyses of the war in Ukraine have tended to focus on the intra-European dimension, it is worth exploring the potential consequences of this conflict for the EU’s relations with countries further afield, especially those in the Middle East and North Africa.
Fearing war fatigue in Ukraine or an escalation of tensions with the potential to spill over beyond region, the West is keen to act. But what can the EU and NATO do to help resolve the war in Ukraine?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a watershed moment on so many levels for so many countries. Existing political, economic, energy, and transportation channels are being affected across western Eurasia. Countries are maneuvering to minimize the war’s detrimental impact while new trade synergies are being formed at a rapid pace. Most recently, Germany and Qatar signed a long-term energy partnership for the delivery of Qatari natural gas as the Germans look to reduce dependence on Russian supplies. Qatar’s reserves are located in the world’s largest gas field, which it shares with its northern neighbor, Iran.
The war in Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Turkish economy. Amid the country’s ongoing economic crisis, the government has been implementing extraordinary and unconventional monetary and fiscal policies.
Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar with MEI’s Economics and Energy program, discusses the findings of her recent publication, “Great power projection in the Middle East: The China-Russia relationship as a force multiplier,” co-authored with Jonathan Fulton.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
As Russia’s two-week-old war against Ukraine has brought Lebanon’s wheat imports from the besieged Black Sea nation to a complete standstill, the government in Beirut is racing against the clock to avert a catastrophic food crisis.
While Europe might be ready for more Algerian gas as it looks to diversify its suppliers, Algeria’s current production capacity limits its ability to substantially increase export volumes to Europe. As of now, any meaningful increases in Algerian production will require years of exploration and development and more crucially, further energy industry reforms to attract new investment.
Attempts at deterrence by sanctions have failed. The question now is: Does the West expect sanctions to change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions? We think not — and the world should have given up years ago on expecting them to dissuade him.
One of the most ambitious elements of China’s Digital Silk Road is the Pakistan & East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) fiber-optic cable. China has long expressed its ambition to connect the greater Middle East, Africa, and Europe with Chinese fiber optics in order to expand its presence in the region, and Beijing now boasts strategic infrastructure assets in geopolitical hotspots, such as the Pakistani port of Gwadar.
Although Western countries have managed to limit Moscow’s capacity to export oil, the Arab Gulf monarchies are unlikely to be able to benefit in the near term. This may change in the long run, however.
With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022, Egypt’s food security crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt’s food security stems from the agricultural sector’s inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country’s domestic demand.
While there are similarities between Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine today, we argue that overstating them leads to a deeper misunderstanding of both conflicts and leaves out significant differences that need to be addressed.
Iranian observers argue that Russia is willing to sacrifice Iranian interests when expedient, and some might even think that Russia is pivoting toward Israel in its Middle East policy. Nonetheless, the big picture of Russo-Iranian relations over the last decade reveals security cooperation between Tehran and Moscow that stands on a strong and reliable foundation, with both countries benefitting.