Research & Commentary Results

Six months since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and subsequent outbreak of war in Gaza, the deadly and devastating conflict looks no closer to concluding. Is it still possible to achieve a sustainable cessation of hostilities and restart the conflict-resolution process? To get there, what are the incentives and disincentives that could be constructed for the two main combatants, Israel and Hamas?

The Second War for Palestine has continued longer than any Israel-Palestinian conflict since Israel’s establishment. Neither Gamal Abdel Nasser’s army nor Hafez al-Assad’s tanks fought as long as the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades still battling in Gaza.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

On March 12, the United States Department of the Treasury sanctioned four individuals for supporting the Iran-linked al-Ashtar Brigades in Bahrain. This US announcement might suggest that Iranian-Bahraini relations are about to take a nose-dive. But in reality, that is unlikely to happen — at least not while Iranian-Saudi détente continues.

The Gaza Strip faces a severe and worsening water crisis. With the death toll now above 31,000 and a catastrophic humanitarian crisis plaguing the strip, one of the most urgent challenges facing its residents is access to water.

The results of the March 1 election for Iran’s Assembly of Experts hold great importance for understanding how the regime is preparing for the selection of the next supreme leader. The major responsibility of this 88-member body is to designate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor, either after his death or if he becomes incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities.

The scale of rebuilding needed after the Gaza war, in addition to the difficult political questions involved, will require close international coordination as well as innovative, future-informed thinking.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Since Oct. 7, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been at the center of international attention. This is in stark contrast to the situation in recent years, when the issue has been sidelined in the international discourse and the question of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking has almost disappeared from the diplomatic agenda.

Since Oct. 7, humanitarian aid has been entering the Gaza Strip via land and air. Following US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address on March 7, aid is also likely to enter via the sea, under an emergency US mission to establish a temporary pier on the Gaza coast that can receive large shipments of food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

In discussions on Iran’s future in a post-Khamenei era, one crucial player in the transition to a new supreme leader is often overlooked: the inner circle surrounding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, primarily operating within the framework of the Office of the Supreme Leader.

This article breaks down five key takeaways from the February 2024 survey conducted by Stasis Consulting ahead of Iran’s upcoming March 1 parliamentary elections.

Findings from the latest survey on Iran from Stasis Consulting: Turnout in the March 1 parliamentary election is expected to be a record low of 34%, the majority of Iranians disapprove of President Raisi’s job performance as well as that of the parliament (65% and 61%, respectively), and in a hypothetical face-off between President Raisi and former FM Zarif, Mr. Raisi wins out 30% to 16%.

Over the centuries, Iran and Turkey have engaged in an ebbing and flowing, but continual, rivalry for regional influence and supremacy. Yet such potentially escalatory dynamics have not been limited to geopolitical competition by proxy; they have also spilled over into efforts to meddle in each other’s internal affairs.