Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Only two days after an extremist attack that saw 14 missiles rain down on Erbil, and in the midst of a new coronavirus surge and lockdown, the Chaldean Catholic Archbishop of Mosul, Najeeb Michaeel, was optimistic about the upcoming visit of Pope Francis.
“Everyone is very happy about this historic event,” he said of Iraq’s inaugural papal visit, from his home in Ankawa, Erbil’s Christian enclave, which has given refuge to thousands of those displaced by ISIS. A previously planned visit in 2000 by Pope John Paul II to Ur, birthplace of the Prophet Abraham according to the Torah, was foiled by protracted negotiations with the government of Saddam Hussein. In 2020, Pope Francis had to cancel a trip due to security and pandemic concerns.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The Lebanese Hezbollah has long been one of the Middle East’s most dangerous actors, and it has deeply embedded itself in Lebanon’s political system and economy. The Middle East Institute’s Bilal Saab details the different relationships the group has with various Lebanese constituencies and explains why some might begin to fray in the months to come.
With the increasingly heavy burdens of everyday life, May 2022 may feel like an eternity away in Lebanon. Next spring, however, marks a high-stakes milestone and reality check for the country’s domestic politics. Absent any major surprises, eligible Lebanese citizens at home and in the diaspora will cast their votes in the first general elections since the October 2019 uprising, the financial collapse, and the Beirut port explosion. In fact, the process has already started with the issuance of electoral rolls. But there’s a catch — Lebanese politics are full of surprises.
For years, Lebanon has suffered from chronic electricity shortages, and repeated attempts to resolve the crisis have failed. None have been able to surmount the political impasse that blocks every reform effort in the country.
The big question remains how the Lebanese can hit the reset button. How can they overhaul a system that still enjoys the support of a large swath of Lebanese society and has so many powerful political backers both at home and abroad?
The cold-blooded assassination of Hezbollah critic and Lebanese activist Lokman Slim on Feb. 4 is yet another manifestation of Iran’s growing boldness in the country. Hoping it can once again get away with murder, Iran is mobilizing its repressive proxy in Lebanon and across the region. The question of Hezbollah’s future is key for regional stability and for the U.S. and its partners. As the U.S. prepares to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, curbing the country’s regional ambitions — including its provision of military and political assistance to Hezbollah — needs to be an integral part of any new deal.
Lebanon and its citizens have endured many hardships in recent years. Two dimensions of Lebanon’s condition today are especially striking, however, and augur more difficult times ahead. First, Lebanon has become just another pauperized and increasingly militarized Arab country whose citizens rebel against state authorities. Simultaneously, the regional and international powers that once engaged in it for their own purposes seem less interested in saving it from its self-inflicted decline.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
“ستتزايد المواجهات في الأسابيع والأشهر المُقبلة عندما تضطر الحكومة إلى رفع الدعم، أو تقنينه عن سلع أساسية مثل الوقود”
Saturday marks the 100th day since Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri secured a razor-thin majority nomination to form a new cabinet — his fourth in 11 years. In October 2019, street protests had forced his “national unity” government to resign. His comeback a year later was a cause for disillusionment among protesters and a signal that politics as usual, in its collusive and inefficient nature, was there to stay. The absurdity of the Lebanese debacle lies in how easy and acceptable it was — and still is — for the established political class to shy away from crucial and courageous decisions when the country needed them most.
آراء من واشنطن: حلقة 3
الواقع في العراق وسياسة تويتر لحظر الحسابات
يناقش إبراهيم الأصيل رأيين لرندا سليم ومايك سيكستون، عن الواقع في العراق وسياسة تويتر لحظر حسابات السياسيين. شاركونا بآرائكم!
From the U.S. and the U.K. to Iraq and Syria, the way countries are handling the repatriation and prosecution of accused ISIS members echoes the policies that drove their citizens to seek a utopian Islamic State in the first place. Not only are the policies that pushed people to start joining the group in 2013 continuing, but in many cases they have increased in both scale and scope. While the current repatriation and prosecution policies are arguably counterproductive, they may also be fueling future terrorist activity and support for radical anti-government groups. To reduce the chances of such negative consequences, foreign governments must switch gears and adopt an entirely different approach before it is too late.
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Marvin G. Weinbaum
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies