Research & Commentary Results

While the security relationship between Russia and Turkey has seen ups and downs throughout the years, energy ties have remained stable. But Turkey has made strides toward reducing its dependence. Changes in global energy markets have tipped the power away from producers toward consumers like Turkey, which have greater room for maneuver. Turkish interests remain largely aligned with those of the West, even if Ankara sees itself as an independent player which has links to both Russia and the EU and the US.

In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil.

Today, there are five conflicts that share similar features in the Black Sea. That is, they are protracted, separatist Russia-supported frozen and active conflicts in the former Soviet space. Deeply rooted in the history of Soviet territorial reorganization and ethnic mixing, conflicts in Transnistria (Moldova), Crimea and Donbas (Ukraine), and Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia) are the result of violations to state borders that were integrated into the Soviet system.

On March 4, OPEC+ members agreed to maintain their current production cut levels into April, and the Saudi- and Russia-led cartel’s decision further strengthened the upward trajectory of oil prices. While there were differing opinions among the OPEC+ members regarding the state of the global economy, the group’s unanimous decision reflects Riyadh’s current take on the markets, which is that the health of the world’s economy remains fragile as the recovery from the pandemic continues.

Relations between the U.S. and Black Sea countries are complex. The Western-oriented Georgia and Romania have shown unconditional support for greater U.S. involvement. Others, like Turkey and Russia, will continue to challenge Western involvement. And while relations between Black Sea countries reflect similarly complex cooperation and conflict patterns, common among them is a hope that the Biden Administration will bring a shift in U.S. policy in the region.

Frontier Europe Initiative’s new report, Alternative Futures for the Black Sea Region, is designed to inform the development of a U.S. strategy for the Black Sea region by considering a range of alternative future scenarios.

American support for Ukraine over the last four years has been unreliable and fluctuating. On the one hand, Ukraine was both an encumbrance and a political football for the Trump Administration. On the other, Congress and the regular U.S. Government continued to support Kyiv, and even began to send it lethal weapons.

For years, Georgia has played a vital role in East-West trade through the South Caucasus. With tensions high in Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia was the only show in town when it came to stable, secure, and predictable transport linking Azerbaijan with Turkey. Therefore, it is not surprising that some in Georgia are concerned that new transit corridors passing through the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, Armenia (Syunik province), and Azerbaijan might take away from Georgia’s strategic importance. However, this is unlikely to be the case.

President Joe Biden’s victory was cheered in Europe as the Transatlantic news of the year, given the strained Transatlantic ties during the Trump Administration. But just one month into the Biden Administration, (Western) Europe’s enthusiasm is waning. This Administration has indicated that while reinforcing Transatlantic ties will be a priority, Washington will maintain its heightened threat perception of both Russia and China. While the U.S. sees enhanced deterrence as necessary, the European Union’s major powers see this as provocative and counterproductively hawkish. If the EU indeed prioritizes a reinforced West, it will need to carefully develop its own balanced and realistic Eastern European security policy.

Earlier this week, Georgian law enforcement arrested United National Movement (UNM) party chairman Nika Melia on charges of inciting violence during anti-government demonstrations in 2019. The arrest has left many outraged and is the latest event to deepen political divisions in the country. There are valid arguments as to how the government could have handled Melia’s arrest better. But more important is what’s at stake for the future of Georgia – both domestically and as a member of the international community.

There have been some Iranian advances in building relations with Black Sea states over the last 30 years. However, Tehran’s wavering commitment to deeper ties with its northern neighbors, with the exception of Russia, has considerably reduced the potential footprint Iran could have otherwise had in the Black Sea region. Tehran’s ongoing standoff with the United States, its ideologically driven preoccupation to make advances in the Arab world, and a gradual but clear submission to Russian hegemony has meant that the Black Sea region is a policy matter of secondary importance to decision-makers in Tehran.

Throughout 2020, the geopolitics between the Middle East and its northern frontier have converged further. Russia, Turkey, and Iran not only compete for influence (as states and through non-state actors) in core countries of the Middle East and North Africa like Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and beyond in the Gulf. They also happen to be the three former imperial powers in the Caucasus – the crucial link between the Black and Caspian Seas on the seam of Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region plays a central role in the global oil and natural gas markets. The region is home to more than 52 and 42 percent of global crude oil and natural gas proven reserves, respectively. In the past decade, the region generated 36 and 22 percent of global crude oil and natural gas, respectively. The abundance of hydrocarbons has sometimes been a mixed blessing for the economies of MENA countries, which have been reluctant to promote energy efficiency or sector diversification. Around the globe, energy intensity —energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP— became 15% more efficient between 2001 and 2018. In contrast, MENA became 8% less energy efficient according to the same measure during that period.

When it comes to Turkey-NATO ties, Ankara is regarded as more of a problem than an ally these days. Not only did it purchase a Russian S-400 air defense system, but its gunboat diplomacy in the eastern Mediterranean also raised the specter of military conflict between NATO allies when Greek and Turkish naval flotillas steamed directly toward each other this past summer. There is one region, however, where Turkey can help NATO efforts: the Black Sea.

Paul Goble, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the role of Russia, Turkey, and Iran in the South Caucasus.

Amidst the pandemic and global economic hardships, Georgia has had an eventful beginning to the year, scoring a long-awaited victory against Russia. On 21 Jan., 2021, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) announced its verdict on the interstate case brought by Georgia against Russia, holding Moscow responsible for breaching six articles of the European Convention of Human Rights.