The only long-term way of building security and stability, and reducing violence for Palestinians and Israelis alike, is to create hope and establish a political pathway for both sides
The intensity of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks by Gaza and the ensuing crisis have already had a significant and dramatic impact on relations between the United States and Israel. The resolute American backing reflects the purest expression of the strategic partnership that has existed between Israel and the U.S. for more than five decades.
With no new interregional or international gas pipelines currently planned, gas-poor Morocco should consider alternative import schemes, such as LNG import via ISO tank containers, utilizing its well-developed port, rail, and road infrastructure.
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China has long sought to brand itself as a “neutral” player and force for peace in the Middle East and elsewhere, willing and able to talk to “all sides.” Beijing’s nascent ambition to play the role of peacemaker and its potential to shape regional events was on display when it succeeded last March in brokering the détente between Riyadh and Tehran. The Israel-Hamas war offers no such low-hanging fruit. On the contrary, it poses a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy — and an opportunity to examine some of our own, perhaps faulty assumptions.
Though it has mobilized 360,000 reservists, the highest number since its 1982 invasion of Lebanon, in pursuing a large-scale ground invasion of Gaza Israel risks unprecedentedly high casualties of its own and massive condemnation by both the Arab world and the West if Palestinian deaths, already reported as exceeding 3,000, rise to multiples of that figure.
Since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, regional and extra-regional actors have been working to prevent an expansion of the conflict beyond the Gaza-Israel theater, focusing particularly on the Lebanese-Israeli border. A decision by Hezbollah to enter the ongoing war would open a second front and bring into the fight their large arsenal of rockets and precision-guided missiles capable of hitting critical Israeli infrastructure. It would also bring destruction to Lebanon while the country reels from a severe economic crisis.
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Nine days after the Hamas attack inside Israel, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is massing troops for a large-scale ground incursion into Gaza. For now, the outlines and endgame of Israel’s military action are not entirely clear. Meanwhile, escalation is rising along the Israel-Lebanon border and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is crisscrossing the Middle East communicating both deterrence and diplomacy.
The state of Israel and the terrorist group Hamas are engaged in an existential conflict, each threatening the survival of the other, as well as the survival of civilians, both Palestinian and Israeli, caught in-between. The conflict could widen into a regional or even global crisis. For energy markets and the global economy, the risks are considerable and could swerve or accelerate in response to multiple variables.
The events that began in Israel on Oct. 7 are a historical hinge. Like 9/11, as has been said, 10/7 will be remembered by most observers as a bright dividing line between “before” and “after.” What’s at stake for Israel—a fight for its survival—has echoes in other battles taking place around the world like Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Iranian regime’s continued repression of its own people. The world keeps moving toward the future, but the past and those retrograde elements that want to move the world backward still want to have a say.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
This report provides an interim assessment of the Biden administration’s overall Middle East strategy and examines the strategic opportunities and risks for U.S. policy in the broader region.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.