Research & Commentary Results

The way forward in Afghanistan seems as unclear as it has ever been. An outright military victory against the Taliban and other insurgent groups appears to be unachievable. The prospect of insurgents overrunning the country soon appears similarly unlikely. At the same time, a negotiated peace seems presently improbable. At least on terms outlined by the Kabul government and international community, the Taliban shows little interest in reconciliation.

Are the principles of tolerance and pluralism that underpin progressive visions of political community under threat? In this essay, the authors discuss the rising tide of Islamophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany, East Asia, and elsewhere.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, Jean-François Seznec, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Europe’s scramble to salvage the Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response to Russia’s call for all foreign forces to leave Syria, a meeting by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia to discuss the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran, the arrest of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia, new political tensions in Pakistan, a push in the U.S.

Opinions about the consequences of the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal began flying around as soon as President Donald Trump announced the exit.

Many of the key points that pundits have made about Washington turning its back on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have dealt with oil. That’s because the U.S. is likely to sanction Iranian oil exports again, as it did during the Obama administration.

Here are several short-term and long-term consequences of the U.S. about-face on the Iran deal:

Short-term consequences

Firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s surprising lead in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections has raised alarm in Tehran. The Iranian press expressed the concern that Sadr would seek to undercut the Islamic Republic’s influence in Iraq by marginalizing Iran’s allies and allowing regional Sunni countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to make inroads into Iraqi politics and economy at the expense of Tehran’s interests.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry today rejected a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin that all foreign troops should leave Syria after intra-Syrian peace process begins, the Iranian media reported. No one can force Iran to do anything. Iran is an independent country, which determines its own policies. “Iran’s presence is based on the Syrian government’s invitation, and its objective is to fight terrorism and defend Syria’s territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said at a press briefing in Tehran.

Seventy years after the Nakba, the Palestinian dispossession and exile that accompanied the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, Palestinians today remain stateless. Their prospects for securing collective or individual rights are bleaker than they have been for decades. Alongside the international and regional developments that are undermining their quest for self-determination, Palestinians are also on the cusp of a leadership change that could have far reaching implications for their collective future. 

While armed nonstate actors and proxy militias have been grabbing most headlines in recent years, the risk of interstate war in the Middle East is rising at an alarming rate. This includes the risk of war between Israel and Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and possibly the United States and Iran, or the United States and Russia. Tensions between Israel and Iran have boiled over several times in recent weeks in Syria, risking a serious escalation between the two countries.

Amb. Lukman Faily, Iraq’s ambassador to the United States from 2013-2016, and Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, join host Paul Salem to analyze the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections and their implications for Iraq, the region, and U.S. policy going forward.

My first in-depth conversation on nonviolence with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal came in the months before the Arab Spring uprisings, when the latter was still chairman of Hamas’s politburo.

Sitting in his Damascus office, Meshaal underscored that Hamas was open to any strategy that would advance Palestinian self-determination, including nonviolence—“if it would work.”

As Lebanon holds its first parliamentary elections in nine years and Iraq paves a way forward in the aftermath of the war against ISIS, many questions remain as to what the political future holds for both countries. The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 6, and in Iraq on May 12, serve as a barometer for transparency, inclusion, and the political realities in both countries. The polls have raised pressing political and governance issues such as how to overcome sectarianism, corruption, and economic stagnation in order to encourage further openness and plurality.
 

Much has been written about the Sino-Israeli relationship, mainly regarding political and economic ties. However, the security dimension of the relationship has received comparatively less attention. This article discusses Sino-Israeli security relations in an effort to shed light on their roots, substance and prospects despite Israel’s commitment to its relations with the United States.

Two major events in the past few weeks have come into play regarding the future of a de-escalation zone in southern Syria from a Jordanian perspective. The first was the Western coalition’s missile strike on April 13 against Syrian regime positions in retaliation for an alleged chemical attack in the besieged Eastern Ghouta that took place on April 7.

The secretary-general of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-supported Iraqi militia group, has threatened that its forces will fight Israel to seize Jerusalem, according to Shafaaq, an Arab outlet.

With Afghanistan’s western Farah Province on the verge of falling to the Taliban, Afghan officials and tribal leaders in the province accuse neighboring Iran and Pakistan of aiding the insurgents for political and economic ends.