Research & Commentary Results

25 years ago, Turkish Islamists’ march to power began in the country’s capital, Ankara, and its largest city, Istanbul, when the ruling Justice and Development Party’s predecessor, the Welfare Party, captured the two municipalities. The loss of these cities in Sunday’s local elections could well mark the beginning of their descent.

Ali Çarkoğlu, professor of international relations at Koç University in Istanbul, Sinan Ciddi, executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Georgetown University, and MEI’s Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Turkey’s March 31 local elections amid mounting economic problems and political polarization.

Turkey’s municipal elections are in fact not local but a national referendum on the continued rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With his complete domination of every aspect of Turkey’s politics and media, as well as military, judicial, and educational institutions, it would be foolish to underestimate his ability to emerge a winner on March 31.

On March 7 President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system is irrevocable. His remarks underlined Turkey’s strategic decision to turn away from NATO as a genuine partnership.

This analysis explains how the Salafi-Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has legally justified its relations with Turkey. Although HTS was careful to avoid direct military collaboration with Turkey, it welcomed the Turkish Army’s presence as an additional force against the Syrian regime and secular opposition groups. This caused a significant rift among the group’s supporters and the al-Qaeda community, who accused HTS of thwarting its own jihad by forming relations with Turkey, considered by Salafi-Jihadists to be an apostate.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Robert S. Ford, Marvin G. Weinbaum, James P. Farwell, Emadeddin Badi, Guney Yildiz, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad, reconstruction efforts in Syria, the crackdown on militant Islamists in Pakistan, Iran’s cyber attack capabilities, upcoming elections in Libya, Turkish-Egyptian tensions, and Qatar’s $12B loan from bond markets.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Marvin G. Weinbaum, Robert S. Ford, Alex Vatanka, and Birol Baskan provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including a potential agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, protests in Algeria, Rouhani’s planned trip to Baghdad, and recent Turkish naval exercises.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Mirette F. Mabrouk, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Przemysław Osiewicz, Grace Wermenbol, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the EU-Arab League summit, the progress in US-Taliban talks, challenges to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s power, consequences of the Kashmir attack, and Turkey’s next steps in Syria.

As the Sochi talks made clear, for all their efforts, Russia and Turkey remain far from a joint resolution on Manbij. But the two sides do not have equal clout on the issue. Russia’s significant and expanding military police presence in the Manbij countryside gives Moscow the final say on what will happen there, a reality that could result in Ankara losing some or all of the region to its Syrian rivals in Damascus.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on Saudi-Pakistan relations, Turkish politics in the lead-up to March municipal elections, and the question of what to do with ISIS prisoners after the group’s territorial collapse.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan angles to gain further influence as a leader of the Sunni Islamic world through an unlikely vehicle – Islamic insurance, or takaful.

Turkey’s “Middle Corridor” (MC) and China’s “Belt Road initiative” (BRI) are two grand schemes that envisage trans-continental integration. These two ambitious initiatives have been developed independently of one another. However, are they compatible?

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Guney Yildiz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S. negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan, a warning sent to Israel by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Sudanese president’s appeal for external support, Turkish-Syrian diplomacy, and Pakistan’s acceptance of Gulf aid.

This article was published by The Hill on January 23, 2019.

Once again, Turks and Kurds are squaring off to fight. Turks and Kurds have clashed with one another for nearly 1,000 years. The Kurds were in the Middle East first, with roots stretching back millennia. The Turks arrived in historical times and absorbed most Kurds into the Ottoman Empire. 

2019 will likely be an unhappy year for Turkey. Challenges abound, both at home and abroad.