A week after Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political ramifications for Egypt have evolved more rapidly, and comprehensively, than its policymakers would have wished.
With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022, Egypt’s food security crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt’s food security stems from the agricultural sector’s inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country’s domestic demand.
Egypt, like much of MENA, is experiencing an unprecedented digital transformation. Governments throughout the region are embracing emerging technologies, particularly in governance and, increasingly, financial management. Countries across MENA are adopting ICT strategies, such as the ICT Vision 2030 in Egypt. Egypt’s plan aims to develop a knowledge-based society by means of a strong digital economy built on reliable, affordable, and equitable access to digital tools.
While there are similarities between Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine today, we argue that overstating them leads to a deeper misunderstanding of both conflicts and leaves out significant differences that need to be addressed.
Iranian observers argue that Russia is willing to sacrifice Iranian interests when expedient, and some might even think that Russia is pivoting toward Israel in its Middle East policy. Nonetheless, the big picture of Russo-Iranian relations over the last decade reveals security cooperation between Tehran and Moscow that stands on a strong and reliable foundation, with both countries benefitting.
Gulf oil and gas exporters might seek to gain market share from Russia and act as a source of energy stability for Europe.
Conventional wisdom has it that the conflict in Ukraine will lead the U.S. to bolster its military presence along NATO’s boundary in Eastern Europe, with a concomitant downscaling in the Middle East. While presenting a robust front in support of NATO is of course critical, it would be a mistake to do so at the expense of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East at a time when it appears likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen the region as the venue for the next moves in his campaign to marginalize the U.S.
The 25-year strategic cooperation agreement between Iran and China, signed in March 2021, is coming to fruition, sparking debate among Iranians about the potential effects of deepening ties with Beijing.
تحمل الأزمة في أوكرانيا، من وجهة نظر أنقرة، مخاطر كبيرة، لكنها تنطوي أيضًا على بعض الفرص. إنها ليست أزمة من صنعهم، ولا أزمة رحبوا بها. ومع ذلك، من الواضح أن أنقرة جهَّزت مخططًا أساسيًا لتجاوز العاصفة. من وجهة نظر صانعي السياسة في واشنطن، من المرجح أن تجلب استراتيجيتهم إحباطًا أكثر من تطمينًا.
وفي نفس الوقت، فإن الفهم الأفضل لكيف تأمل تركيا أن تتجاوز الأزمة الأوكرانية يمكن أن يساعد في توضيح بعض النقاشات الجارية داخل واشنطن حول كيفية تصور السياسة الخارجية الجديدة لأنقرة ومكانها داخل حلف الناتو.
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The first International Development Research Centre (IDRC)-Middle East Institute (MEI) Roundtable on Energy Transitions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), held on January 20, 2022, explored the challenges and opportunities facing the region as a result of the global energy transition. As it accelerates over the course of the century, this global transition will provide new opportunities for economies to evolve while putting a strain on the current economic model of many nations in MENA.
The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy is likely to hold more frustration than reassurance.
In its first session the new Iraqi government will find on its desk a number of thorny files, which vary in their degree of importance, danger, and urgency. Its first task will be to prioritize them. How it chooses to do so will be shaped by several sets of factors, including intrinsic internal ones, as well as regional and international developments. Its priorities when it comes to the security, economic, and service files will play an important role in determining if the government will be able to remain in office and complete its constitutional term.
حتى كتابة هذه السطور، ليس من الواضح ما هو النهج الذي ستتخذه روسيا في أوكرانيا: الضغط، أو التقسيم، أو البلع. يمكن للرئيس فلاديمير بوتين أن يواصل ويُصعّد من سياسة الضغط الشديد على أوكرانيا، دون غزو كبير، الأمر الذي يمكن أن يجعل أوكرانيا تخضع وتستسلم، ويفرض تغييرًا في سياسات كييف أو مساراتها، ويضمن هدف بوتين المتمثل في مواءمة أوكرانيا مع روسيا. أو يمكنه أن يواصل ما بدأه في دونباس وشبه جزيرة القرم وأن يستولى ببساطة على قطعة أخرى من أوكرانيا، مما يزيد الضغط على كل من كييف والغرب. الاحتمال الثالث الواضح هو غزو شامل لابتلاع البلد كله.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.