Research & Commentary Results

With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

Reacting to today’s deadly bombing in Kabul, Iranian leaders and media outlets blamed U.S. policies and military presence in Afghanistan for growing extremism and instability in the war-ravaged country. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the Kabul attack shows “Takfiri terrorism recognizes no boundaries” and called on regional countries to act in unison to fight terrorism instead of seeking help from outsiders – an apparent reference to the United States, which has more than 8,000 troops in Afghanistan training and assisting the country’s security forces.

Afghan officials

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Alex Vatanka, Jonathan M. Winer, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s trip to Israel and the prospects for a peace process, the reelection of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russia’s planned naval drill off the coast of Libya this week, and the Afghan Taliban’s decision to reject peace talks.

Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?

Unlikeliest of Allies

An editorial in Afghanistan’s largest daily Hasht-e Sobh accuses the Iranian government of “playing a double game” in Afghanistan. The article analyzes Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s weekend visit to Kabul and warns that such diplomatic outreach would yield no results unless the Iranian government cuts ties with terrorist groups fighting in Afghanistan. “Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s trip to Kabul was an opportunity for high-ranking officials of the national unity government to share Afghanistan’s legitimate concerns with him,” the paper stressed.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Randa Slim, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Mabrouka M’Barek provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s upcoming meeting with Russian President Putin, the upcoming speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah, the suprising popularity of Rouhani’s VP in the Iranian Presidential Race, the Taliban’s new Spring offensive, and protests in Tunisia over a government proposal to give amnesty to the country’s corrupt financial elite.

The Iranian and Afghan delegations to the 136th assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union have had acrimonious exchanges over Tehran’s support for the Taliban, the Iranian media reports.

Afghan and U.S. officials say Iran and Russia have teamed up to undermine the U.S.-led stabilization efforts in Afghanistan by sheltering, training, funding and arming Taliban insurgents. They claim that the two countries have not only expanded their diplomatic engagement with the Taliban leadership, but are also providing advanced weapons to the insurgents that are fighting the Afghan government and the U.S.-led coalition forces in the country.

Afghanistan’s largest daily Hasht-e Sobh has blasted the Iranian government for coercing Afghan refugees into fighting Iran’s proxy war in Syria.

Afghanistan’s leading daily newspaper Hasht-e Sobh has blasted the Iranian government for blocking Afghanistan’s accession to the Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA) and using its leverage within TRACECA to “blackmail” the Afghan government and seek political concessions from Kabul.

Prominent Afghan jihadi leader Amir Ismail Khan has warned the Iranian government against providing military and financial assistance to the Taliban militants in Afghanistan.

The top American commander in Afghanistan told Congress yesterday that Iran and Russia are supporting the Taliban to undermine the U.S. mission to stabilize the war-ravaged country. Army Gen.

The BBC Persian reports that Iran has significantly expanded its ideological, cultural and economic sphere of influence in Afghanistan’s western province of Nimroz and is inflaming sectarian tension in the province.