Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.

Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow

Geopolitical maneuvering, political disunity, endemic corruption, rudderless security apparatus and, most importantly, a confident Taliban movement supported by the Pakistani “deep state” make Afghanistan the most persistent trouble spot. Recent events in the country are dominated by increasing terrorist attacks against security forces and hapless citizens.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.

This essay examines the effects of the Saudi-Iran rivalry on Sunni-Shia relations in Pakistan. The essay shows that this rivalry, which has sectarian undertones and is partly responsible for the continuing Syrian civil war, has not only complicated Pakistan’s relations with Riyadh and Tehran but has exacerbated Sunni-Shia tensions domestically. Pakistan’s predicament has become even more complicated in light of the recent Trump-led Arab Islamic American Summit.

Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?

Unlikeliest of Allies

Tension between Iran and Pakistan over the latest killing of 10 Iranian border guards continues to escalate despite an agreement between leaders of the two countries last week to jointly tackle cross-border issues.

Iran has said that it is ready to work with the Afghan government on procedures to legalize the residence of Afghan refugees in Iran.

Iran and Pakistan agreed Wednesday to work together to boost security along their shared border after Pakistan-based militants killed 10 Iranian border guards in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan last week. A militant group called Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attack.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has sent a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, calling on Islamabad to prosecute perpetrators of an attack that killed 10 Iranian troops along the Iranian-Pakistani border on Wednesday. A militant group called Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attack. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Rouhani blamed the Pakistani government’s “inaction” and “lack of necessary measures” for repeated attacks originating from Pakistan against Iranian border guards.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the victory of Turkish President Erdogan’s “Yes” constitutional referendum campaign to increase his powers, Secretary of Defense Mattis’ trip to the Middle East, the entry of 1,600 candidates for the upcoming Iranian presidential elections, and the alarming violence in Pakistan against accused “blasphemers”.

Much has been written on the evolution of Islamist terrorism in Pakistan, the role of military dictatorships in nurturing Islamist terrorist groups, and Islamist parties and proselytizing groups working hand in glove with terrorists. Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban were born in Pakistan, in addition to the country’s own long list of local terrorist groups such as the multi-faceted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (T.T.P.). Pakistan is now going through a new phase of Islamist militancy, with new alignments and the adoption of new tactics by jihadists.

You can read the full article at The Diplomat.

While the U.S. and Pakistani counterterrorism efforts have degraded al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), sectarian violence across the country continues unabated and threatens to further destabilize Pakistan and the broader region.

The Iranian government has said it has “reservations” about the appointment of Pakistan’s former army chief, retired Gen. Raheel Sharif, as the head of the Saudi-led coalition.