Research & Commentary Results

Ideally, the various sides of the Syrian civil war would seize the opportunity to reach an agreement. However, the Assad regime’s current intransigence and inability counter ISIS necessitate continued U.S. protection of northeastern Syria and efforts to stabilize it until such a deal can be made. This is not an ideal scenario, but the cost of a pullout at this stage will be immense.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including the Turkish-U.S. crisis meeting in Ankara on Syria, the resumption of U.S.-Taliban negotiations, Trump’s creation of a new “dovish” line on Iran, a rise in Egypt’s poverty levels, Sudan’s democratic transition, the easing of female guardianship rules in Saudi Arabia, and the end of the ceasefire in Idlib, featuring Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Paul Salem, W. Robert Pearson, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Thomas W. Lippman, and Robert S. Ford.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including Kazakhstan’s upcoming “Astana talks” on Syria, Jared Kushner’s planned visit to the Middle East, the shift in US-Pakistan relations, and Abbas’ announcement that the Palestinian Authority will halt all signed agreements with Israel, featuring Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Khaled Elgindy.

OPEC+ nations have ended speculation about whether they would continue oil production cuts by agreeing to a nine-month extension. Led by the global petroleum powers Saudi Arabia and Russia, the group agreed on July 2 to extend the current level of cuts until the second quarter of 2020.

When it was signed four years ago, the Iran nuclear deal was widely perceived as a diplomatic triumph, a move that would help reintegrate Iran into the global economy and restore its relations with the West. Things haven’t quite turned out that way, however.

U.S. crude oil and energy product exports surged to an all-time high in the third week of June, making the country a net exporter of oil and products for the third time since November 2018. This change lends credence to American officials’ presumption that amid growing U.S.-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf, Washington is less compelled to police oil transit routes in the region, especially the Strait of Hormuz, than it was during the 1980s. However, while the U.S. is less reliant on oil imports than in the past, it still remains dependent on Gulf producers, albeit in different ways.

Although Syria’s civil war has largely wound down, fighting in Idlib in the country’s northwest has heated up in the last two months. Charles Lister, MEI senior fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, executive director and co-founder of People Demand Change, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the ongoing conflict and what impact it might have on Syria’s future.

Violence has been flaring up at an alarming rate in the southern Syrian province of Daraa, amid dozens of unclaimed attacks by gunmen. Over the last three months, assassinations, checkpoint attacks, fires, and sporadic clashes have wreaked havoc in the area and signaled a potential return of conflict. 

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Rauf Mammadov, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s announcement that it has exceeded its enriched uranium limit, Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400s missile defense system over American objections, an Emirati announcement that it will downsize military involvement in Yemen, the resumption of intra-Afghan peace talks, Russia’s continuing embrace of OPEC+ oil production cuts, and the emergence of potential threats to Tunisia’s democracy.

Since the start of the regime’s military campaign in Idlib last month, a group of Free Syrian Army factions that fought alongside Turkish soldiers has gradually entered the region. This development may balance the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham presence and ultimately help to force the group out of the demilitarized zone, ensuring a continued Turkish-Russian consensus on Idlib.

Competition for security and energy is at the center of recent developments in the Eastern Mediterranean. Countries from Egypt to Turkey are moving to secure, exploit, and market their (not always fair) share of the game-changing offshore natural gas reserves. Russia, China, and Iran are securing port facilities, and in the case of Russia, drilling rights, in Lebanon and Syria. 

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Guney Yildiz, Nathan Stock, Elizabeth Dent, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including this week’s Bahrain “workshop” on Palestine’s economic development, an opposition victory in Istanbul’s rerun election, the release of a portion of the Trump administration’s Israel-Palestine peace plan, the fracturing of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and Tuesday’s trilateral meeting between the U.S., Israel, and Russia.

It’s been nearly three years since the Turkish incursion into northern Syria in August 2016, but one central question remains unanswered: What is Ankara’s plan for the area now under its control? This paper examines the complex relationship between local governance and service provision in the Euphrates Shield (ES) area of north Aleppo and the Turkish state. Using secondary sources and interviews with Syrian and Turkish activists and officials, this paper establishes that, first and foremost, Turkey has no coherent policy with regards to local governance in ES.

The territorial defeat of ISIS in March 2019 was a significant victory in the fight against terrorism, but the struggle to defeat violent extremism is far from over. Ambassador Edmund Fitton-Brown and Charles Lister join guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the latest developments in policy to combat regional terrorist threats.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including military developments in Syria’s northwest, the confirmation of David Schenker as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and the approval of amendments to laws regulating Egypt’s judiciary.