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Regional transit trade isn’t enough to drive Pakistan’s Gwadar Port
In this photograph taken on October 4, 2017, Pakistani labourers walk through Gwadar port. Remote and impoverished, Pakistan's Gwadar port at first glance seems an unlikely crown jewel in a multi-billion dollar development project with China aimed at constructing a 21st century Silk Road. Situated on a barren peninsula in the Arabian Sea, Gwadar, or the
  • Analysis
  • Regional transit trade isn’t enough to drive Pakistan’s Gwadar Port

    Landlocked Afghanistan has begun using the Chinese-operated Pakistani port of Gwadar for transit trade — a development Pakistani officials see as marking the start of Gwadar’s role as a gateway port through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan’s hope to develop the Arabian Sea port into a gateway for Afghanistan, Central Asia, and China’s Xinjiang region has been a long-standing one — and it is misguided. Islamabad should instead focus on local drivers to build the port and use it as a vehicle to develop the impoverished, but resource-rich region of southern Balochistan.

    October 14, 2020

    Erdogan’s two-man rule
    Photo by Murat Kula/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Erdogan’s two-man rule

    For those following Turkey, there is no doubt about who calls the shots. From the economy and landscape to the arts and sports, everything reflects the will and vision of one man: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To his supporters and many of his detractors, he is invincible and answers to no one but God. In reality, however, Erdogan has become increasingly reliant on Devlet Bahceli, the head of the hard-right MHP, who is playing a growing role in shaping his policies. And as Erdogan loses ground in the polls, Bahceli’s sway only increases.

    Prospects for the intra-Afghan talks in Doha
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Prospects for the intra-Afghan talks in Doha

    Omar Samad and Marvin Weinbaum join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what to expect from the intra-Afghan talks underway in Doha, the ongoing violence on the ground in Afghanistan, and the challenges facing Afghan security forces as the US continues its troop drawdown.

    More episodes

    October 6, 2020

    Pakistan's Israel dilemma
  • Analysis
  • Pakistan's Israel dilemma

    On Sept. 13, Bahrain recognized Israel at a ceremony attended by US President Donald Trump at the White House. With the stroke of a pen, Bahrain became the fourth Arab state to have forged official ties with Israel, following in the footsteps of Egypt (1979), Jordan (1994), and most recently, the UAE (Aug. 13, 2020).

    October 6, 2020

    America in Afghanistan
    Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • America in Afghanistan

    In the recently released Showtime documentary “Kingdom of Silence” by Alex Gibney and Lawrence Wright, I made the statement that with hindsight the U.S. may have been better off never having occupied Afghanistan. That comment has brought some questions and responses, so let me be clear about what I mean and why.

    October 5, 2020

    Monday Briefing: Will Russia and Turkey face off over Nagorno-Karabakh?
  • Commentary
  • Monday Briefing: Will Russia and Turkey face off over Nagorno-Karabakh?

    This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Maxim A. Suchkov, Ibrahim Jalal, Eliza Campbell, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum.

    September 28, 2020

    Turkey’s Sahel strategy
    Photo by Fatih Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Turkey’s Sahel strategy

    On Sept. 9, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu embarked on a three-day trip to West Africa, which included stops in Mali, Senegal, and Guinea-Bissau. During his trip, Cavusoglu emphasized Turkey’s support for Mali’s post-coup transition process, struck infrastructure-related commercial deals with Guinea-Bissau, and underscored its commitment to engaging with multilateral institutions, such as the UN and AU, on addressing security challenges in the Sahel.

    September 23, 2020

    The Taliban holds the upper hand in intra-Afghan talks
    Photo by US Department of State/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • The Taliban holds the upper hand in intra-Afghan talks

    The ongoing intra-Afghan talks confirm, without a doubt, that the Taliban is negotiating from a position of remarkable strength. After being overthrown by the military of the world’s sole superpower two decades ago, the Taliban’s resurgence is a perfect example of what happens when a counterinsurgency campaign fails to eliminate its target’s safe havens. The Doha negotiations have also underlined the ugly reality of the Afghan conflict — that firepower alone cannot crush an insurgency when its narrative has some resonance with the local people.

    September 21, 2020

    An enduring divide: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Durand Line
    Photo by WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • An enduring divide: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Durand Line

    The Durand Line, as the British-Empire-drawn border that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan is known, continues to haunt the region and its leaders. On Sept. 7, Afghanistan’s first vice president, Amrullah Saleh, opened Pandora’s box by saying in an interview that “No Afghan politician of national stature can overlook the issue of Durand Line.”

    September 11, 2020