Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Washington will have three options to increase the pressure against Tehran
For thousands of years, Iran has stood out as a culture that prized diversity and a place where religious minorities have flourished as independent communities. The Islamic Republic now seeks to change that, however, by implanting its own leaders inside different faith groups to protect and advance its interests.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
In recent years, numerous analyses have been published on the increasing influence of the IRGC within the Iranian regime. Nevertheless, the rise in the power of the military should not overshadow the fact that in the Islamic Republic, not only the paramount position of supreme leader, but also many other key roles are held exclusively by clerics. Moreover, many of these clerics, including the highest-ranking ones, must be appointed by the supreme leader. This system was designed to ensure the loyalty of key officials, but over time has given rise to growing concerns over the reliability of the next generation of clerics and the transfer of power.
Ahead of the seventh round of the Iran nuclear negotiations that ended on Dec. 3 in Vienna, many observers interpreted Ebrahim Raisi’s election to the presidency and his recent rhetoric as representing a distinct shift in Iran’s nuclear strategy. Indeed, in November, Raisi’s government’s official newspaper Iran explained that Tehran’s strategy in Vienna has changed, and that it has embraced a new approach looking to compel the West to agree with Iran’s terms for a “good deal.” Yet there is more continuity than change in Iranian decision-making on the nuclear file than meets the eye, and Raisi’s election by itself has not represented a fundamental rearrangement.
If the Biden administration makes concessions to appease the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the recently resumed Vienna nuclear talks, it will be a historic mistake. The Islamic Republic is facing a deep legitimacy crisis of its own making, as a series of disastrous decisions have hardened the people’s views against the regime. These days, anyone who is seen to be throwing the Islamic Republic a lifeline will be wildly unpopular among Iranians.
مدير برنامج إيران وكبير باحثين في مبادرة Frontier Europe
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
هذا هو الجزء الأول من سلسلة مكونة من ثلاثة أجزاء
منذ البداية، عرَّفت جمهورية إيران الإسلامية نفسها على أنها دولة دينية يتمتع فيها رجال الدين بمكانة مميزة. ومع ذلك، لم تتمكن السلطات قط من إخفاء مخاوفها المستمرة بشأن ما تعتبره فجوة متنامية بين أفكار العديد من رجال الدين الإيرانيين ووجهات نظر المرشد الأعلى لإيران.
منذ تولي الجنرالات السلطة الكاملة في السودان في 25 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول، ضغطت الولايات المتحدة والعديد من الجهات الفاعلة الأخرى على الجيش لإعادة رئيس الوزراء عبد الله حمدوك ووزرائه المدنيين إلى السلطة قبل استئناف المساعدة ومناقشات الإعفاء من الديون. لقد أحجم المجتمع الدولي عن تقديم 4 مليارات دولار من المساعدات الإنمائية وأوقف المناقشات بشأن ما يصل إلى 50 مليار دولار لتخفيف الديون.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, from the very beginning, has defined itself as a religious state, in which the clergy enjoy a privileged status. Nevertheless, the authorities have never managed to hide their fears over what they see as a growing gap between the ideas of many Iranian clerics and the views of Iran’s supreme leader.
It is a mistake to view Iran’s regional aggression and hegemony as purely a result of violence and terrorism. Iran’s powerplay also has important media, political, economic, and cultural aspects.
Alex Vatanka and Michael Metrinko discuss the Iranian hostage crisis, how it has shaped US-Iran relations, and what that history tells us about the present and potential future of the Islamic Republic. Metrinko also recounts his experience as a political officer at the embassy in Iran in 1979 and being one of the 52 hostages.