Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Jonathan M. Winer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic engagements in the region, Turkey’s consideration of military operations in northern Syria, Iranian President Rouhani’s centrist cabinet nominations, and Libyan leaders’ decision between greater cooperation or renewed confrontation.

Iranian media outlets, analysts and politicians warn that Saudi Arabia and its regional allies are cultivating close ties with Muqtada al-Sadr and other Iraqi Shiite clerics and political leaders to roll back Iran’s influence in post-Islamic State Iraq and the broader region. While some suggest that Riyadh’s outreach to Iraqi Shiites is part of the kingdom’s efforts to defuse tension with Tehran, others see it as a plot to isolate Iran. At the center of this debate is al-Sadr, who recently visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and is scheduled to travel to Egypt soon.

Malaysia’s diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran generally have been cordial while its economic ties with both countries have been expanding. However, the Saudi-Iran strategic rivalry has intensified both within and beyond the Middle East, raising several questions that this essay proposes to address: What are Malaysia’s interests in Saudi Arabia and Iran? Is there any evidence that Saudi Arabia and Iran, as a function of their competition with each other, are seeking to expand their influence in Southeast Asia, and in Malaysia in particular, through the promulgation of Shia and Wahhabi ideology? If so, to what extent and by what means could Malaysia respond to this development so as to avoid jeopardizing the fruitful aspects of their relations with both countries?

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including next steps in the Syrian conflict de-escalation process, General Zinni’s mission to the Gulf, Qatari-Turkish relations, and crude oil informal cooperation.

Armed drones are on the edge of widespread proliferation, with China now entering the market and a growing appetite for the lethal weapons in the Middle East. This new development, however, should not become reason for the United States to mimic China’s behavior. Instead, Washington should continue its policy of judicious flexibility in regard to drone sales.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s handshake and brief conversation with his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir received mixed reactions inside Iran. While some described their meeting as an encouraging step to improving ties between the two neighbors, others criticized Zarif for seeking friendship with Riyadh. The two top diplomats exchanged diplomatic pleasantries on the sidelines of the Organization of Islamic cooperation (O.I.C.) summit in Istanbul on Tuesday.

Prominent Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s weekend visit to Saudi Arabia has raised concerns in Tehran. While the Iranian government and media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) largely refrained from commenting on Sadr’s trip and his meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, some conservative newspapers and Iranian analysts cautioned that the Saudi government is attempting to court Iraqi Shiite leaders to influence Iraqi politics at the expense of Iran’s interests.

Leaning toward Riyadh?

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

The Saudi-led Arab Peace Initiative is losing its value in the wake of Egypt’s decision to return the Red Sea islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia, and the latter’s participation as a security guarantor of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.

Last month, the Egyptian parliament, bucking widespread public and institutional opposition, acknowledged Saudi sovereignty over the islands.

Most attention has focused on the dispute over sovereignty, which has been under Egyptian administration for more than half a century. But the real significance of the deal lies elsewhere.

Art has long been both an instrument for openly engaging in dialogue as well as an agent to force an overdue conversation. The installations of international artists, such as Dawn Weleski, Jon Rubin, Ai Weiwei, and Theaster Gates, all engage with social issues and help introduce new perspectives or dialogue. The fusion of art and socio-political commentary thrives especially in the Middle East, where unrestricted criticism of both government and cultural norms can be seen as heresy.

The naval forces of the Islamic Revolution Guards Crops (I.R.G.C.) have seized a Saudi vessel for allegedly trespassing on Iranian territorial waters, the Iranian media reported today. Majid Agha-Babaei, the director-general of border affairs at Iran’s Interior Ministry, said I.R.G.C.

The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on eastern Syria as a new hotbed of geopolitical competition, Iranian responses to the Islamic State attack, additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and renewed Saudi succession speculation.

Read the full article on DefenseOne.

Iranian leaders and media outlets today reacted to a decision by Saudi Arabia and several other Arab nations to sever diplomatic and commercial ties with Qatar by blaming Washington and Riyadh for regional tension and discord. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iranian Parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, said the rising tension is a direct result of President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East.