Marvin Weinbaum and Sayed Madadi discuss Afghanistan’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises six months after the Taliban reclaimed control of the country.
In a statement released on Feb. 12, the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) distanced itself from international terrorism, declaring that its violence was singularly focused on Pakistan. While the TTP’s recent comments on America are unprecedented, they do fit into its broader rebranding effort under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud, who took over the group in 2018.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
On Feb. 11, Iran celebrated the 43rd anniversary of its 1979 revolution. The current government in Tehran takes good care to refer to this as the “Islamic Revolution,” implying that what happened then was an organized and intentional effort, on the part of the entire country, to pivot toward an Islamic society. But any student of modern Iranian history will tell you that this is a vast oversimplification that puts the cart before the horse.
مع استمرار المحادثات النووية في فيينا، ثمة حقيقة واحدة لا يمكن إنكارها وهي أن قدرة إيران الاقتصادية على تحمل العقوبات الأمريكية حتى الآن ترجع في الغالب إلى الصين. ففي نهاية الأمر، حصلت شركات صينية كافية على مباركة السلطات في بكين لمواصلة استيراد النفط الإيراني وتجاهل المطالب الأمريكية منذ أن أعاد دونالد ترامب فرض العقوبات على إيران في عام 2018. البيانات التجارية غامضة، ولكن كميات الخام الإيرانية المصدرة إلى الصين، يقال أنها لم تقل سوى قليلًا عما كانت عليه في سنوات ما قبل العقوبات.
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For years, the world tried to soften the Taliban’s extremist ideology by exposing them to modernity. As an insurgency they learned diplomacy and negotiation tactics, but their medieval thinking remained just as rigid. Now that the Taliban rule over Afghanistan, the international community continues to appease them, assuming it can convince them to form an inclusive government and ease their regressive policies while alleviating the country’s worsening humanitarian disaster. That is a naïve assumption that overlooks the root causes of the current crisis. Not only will the international community not get what it wants, but it also risks creating a much greater crisis: a Taliban theocracy that institutionalizes its repressive rule at a steep human and economic cost.
The U.S. is disengaging from the Middle East as it shifts its focus elsewhere, a move widely perceived within the region as a sign of a coming American departure. Many in Israel were concerned that this would strengthen Iran and its influence in the region. Instead, it is Israel that has emerged stronger.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Ethiopia is Iran’s gateway to the Horn of Africa and the broader East Africa region. By helping Ethiopia in its ongoing conflict with the rebel Tigray Defense Forces, which represent the Tigray ethnic minority, Iran is preserving its so-called strategic depth in the region to bolster its influence.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of Vladimir Putin in the 1990s, military and economic relations between Iran and Russia have improved, as their tensions with the West have intensified. One aspect of the relationship that has received little attention is their growing economic and trade cooperation involving the production, export, and import of halal meat and other products since 2015.
After a grueling 20-year campaign, America concluded its war in Afghanistan where it started: with the Taliban in charge. But this isn’t your father’s Taliban. In recognition of their need for a firmer ideological base and their desire to establish a purely Islamic system, the Taliban rulers are gradually putting together the framework for their new ideological state. They are enacting three closely intertwined ideological initiatives in order to solidify their rule: fleshing out a state religious ideology, burnishing their “originalist” religious credentials, and channeling Afghan nationalism into religious nationalism. These ongoing efforts, which revolve around the Taliban’s Islamism, provide a preview of how the new rulers intend to interact with temporal political realities by provoking religious reform in order to rule Afghanistan.
What these attacks and many others in the region have in common is Iran’s irrefutable involvement. They may have different local contexts and their perpetrators, all loyal to Iran, may have different motivations, but every single one of those attacks was possible only because Iran provided either the weapons or the know-how to assemble and use them.
Will Raisi succeed where previous Iranian regimes have failed?
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