Research & Commentary Results

Afghanistan remains a key military and diplomatic challenge for the United States, with far-reaching strategic and economic implications. While achieving stability in war-torn Afghanistan is a prerequisite for regional peace, fixing matters there has become hostage to innumerable domestic contradictions as well as deep-rooted strategic mistrust among key regional stakeholders.

Mohammad Mohaqeq, a deputy chief executive of Afghanistan, has come under fire at home after he praised the role of Iran and its regional proxies in the Syrian conflict. Speaking at a conference in Tehran last week, Mohaqeq congratulated Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, for the “victory” against ISIS. But what particularly triggered angry reactions in Afghanistan was Mohaqeq’s praise for Afghan Shiite militias, known as the Fatemiyoun Division, who are fighting in Syria under Soleimani’s leadership.

With ISIS militarily defeated in Syria and Iraq, the Fatemiyoun Division, an all-Afghan Afghan Shiite militia group fighting in Syria, says its fighters will join the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia groups to fight Israel next.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Arab League meeting in Cairo to moderate the Saudi-Iran escalation, Iran’s view of the Sochi Summit as a turning point, Putin’s effort to reach an agreement on Syria before presidential elections, Afghanistan’s response to the increase of US troops on their ground, and the political upheaval in Israel as Netanyahu’s corruption case continues.

The war in Afghanistan has dragged on for 16 years, appearing to many Americans to have no end in sight or positive outcome. However, as Defense Secretary James Mattis recently testified, “Violence and progress in Afghanistan continue to coexist.” What is that progress, and what does it mean for Afghans themselves? Saad Mohseni, chairman and CEO of Moby Media Group, and Ahmad Majidyar, director of MEI’s IranObserved project, join host Paul Salem to discuss the positive changes taking place in the country.

The first part of this article outlined how the newly-elected Narendra Modi government had no sense of where West Asia, including the Persian Gulf, fit into its larger foreign policy. However, this view changed radically following overtures from the Abu Dhabi royal family and the August 2015 state visit by Prime Minister Modi to the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.). This second part details how, since that visit, India’s relations with West Asia, and particularly with the Gulf monarchies and Iran, have evolved.

On September 25 Iraq’s Kurdish region pressed ahead with a controversial independence referendum. It had a high voter turnout of 73%, 93% of whom voted in favor of independence. The referendum is technically non-binding but it has sparked a political crisis with threats of action against the Kurdish region from its neighbors, Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq’s central government. The United States also opposed the vote. MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, and Ahmad Majidyar join host Paul Salem to discuss the implications of the vote and what happens next.

Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry has called on the Iranian government to stop recruiting and sending Afghan refugees to fight in Syria, Afghan media and BBC Persian report. Ahmad Shekaib Mostaghni, the ministry’s spokesman, raised particular concern about Afghan children deployed by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) to the Syrian battlefield.

Local officials in western Afghanistan say Iran and Pakistan continue to assist Taliban fighters to destabilize the region. “Pakistan and Iran support the Taliban. Residents have seen Pakistani and Iranian clerics bringing money to Taliban in Shindand [District,” alleged Abdul Ghani Noori, the head of Zer Koh District of Herat Province, bordering Iran. He claimed that between 200 and 400 Taliban militants are present in the district and called on Afghan security forces to launch an “extensive operation” against terrorists in the area.

It is increasingly clear that Turkey has been seeking to expand its role in the war-torn and conflict-ridden Afghanistan by making a concerted effort to step up diplomatic, developmental, and military engagements in the country. The scope and scale of Turkey’s interests in Afghanistan are an expression of the transformation of Turkish foreign policy in recent years.

Prime Minister Modi’s 2015 visit to the U.A.E. and subsequent events have seen India’s view of the region undergo a fundamental shift. This essay, the first of two parts, shows how New Delhi has come to regard the Gulf more as a source of investment and less as a source of energy and visas; and has begun to take a more strategic and military view of the region.

The major components of President Donald Trump’s much-awaited Afghanistan strategy are sufficient to give Pakistani strategists sleepless nights. The new plan will acknowledge Pakistan’s significant role in providing safe havens for terrorists; escalate war against the Afghan Taliban while denying it the ability to fight its way into positions of power; and enhance India’s role in stabilizing and developing Afghanistan. Moreover, the strategy does not provide deadlines for withdrawal of U.S. forces.

The Chief of General Staff for the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces has said that the Kabul government has evidence that Iran is providing weapons and other military assets to the Taliban in western Afghanistan. In an interview with the BBC Persian, Lieutenant General Mohammad Sharif Yaftali added that President Ashraf Ghani discussed the issue with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani last month in Tehran but did not disclose details of the meeting.

MEI experts Paul Salem, Will Wechsler, Marvin Weinbaum, and Ahmad Majidyar discuss current issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and U.S. policy and strategic interests in the region.

Al-Qaeda appears set to make a comeback in Pakistan, with battle-hardened militants returning from Syria and Iraq and eyeing for the resurrection of al-Qaeda in Pakistan.[i] A new terror group, Jamaat ul Ansar al-Shariah Pakistan, surfaced in June 2017, and is comprised of fighters who have returned from the Middle East.