Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Ruba Husari, Guney Yildiz, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and John Calabrese provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the failure of the twelfth rounds of Syria peace talks in Astana, negotiations over Yemen’s strategic port of Hodeida, a new report on Iraq’s oil production potential, ongoing US-Turkey talks about a buffer zone in Syria, Egypt’s recently passed constitutional amendments, and Beijing’s second Belt and Road Forum.

Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the other two zones.

The Voices of Syria project is an undertaking by the Middle East Institute, in partnership with Syrian civil society, to better inform the general public and to guide policymakers toward a more holistic view of the situation in Syria by leveraging the voices of the unheard and their hopes and aspirations.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Emadeddin Badi, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the US decision to end Iran oil waivers, the flagging Afghan peace process, Iraq’s evolving regional policy, the status of General Hifter’s offensive in Libya, and Russia’s maneuvering to control the upcoming Syria talks in Astana.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.

New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts

Paul Salem
President

The suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) has been one of ISIS’s most powerful and versatile weapons. The group consistently adapted its SVBIED designs based on operational environment and other factors, with modifications in armor, payload organization, color, and detonation technology. ISIS’s research and development of SVBIED technology presents a continued threat, even after the collapse of the territorial caliphate, due to the group’s ability to share and export its designs, enabling nascent ISIS provinces halfway around the world to launch powerful attacks on unsuspecting communities.

Russia has a new focus in Syria. Intractable stalemates characterize most of the regions that remain outside of the Syrian government’s control. In discussions with Turkey, the other primary player in Syria’s north, little progress has been made on either Manbij or Idlib. Half a year of deadlocked negotiations appears to have made Moscow anxious. With this in mind, Kremlin officials have recently turned their attention to another target: The Rukban refugee camp.

The fluid and chaotic situation in Libya is confusing and predicting how the ongoing violence in Tripoli will play out and impact the broader trajectory of the civil war is difficult. Nonetheless, Hifter’s campaign appears to be connected to several international and regional developments, the alignment of which seems to have prompted him to determine that this was an opportune time to move forward, dealing a harsh blow to the UN-led peace process.

ISIS’s self-proclaimed Caliphate in Syria and Iraq came to an end on March 23, when the Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the U.S.-led international coalition, liberated the town of Baghouz after a tough six week battle. In some respects however, the military victory against ISIS was the easy part.

Following the liberation of ISIS-held territory in Syria and Iraq, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is reestablishing ties with regional actors as a means to mobilize Arab support for the Palestinian cause.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s first foreign trip to Egypt, the future threat posed by ISIS, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s AIPAC meeting in Washington, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Lebanon.

That the relationship between the Ba’ath regime in Syria and the ayatollahs of the Islamic Republic is one of loveless realpolitik is no secret to anyone with a passing familiarity with the history of Damascus-Tehran ties. The end of the war in Syria has already begun to expose faults in the unlikely marriage between a militant secular Arab regime rooted in the independence politics of the colonial era and the revolutionary rule of the wilayat al-faqih.

The radicalized children of the Islamic State will threaten the world for generations to come unless the president changes course.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Wa’el Alzayat, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Algeria’s ongoing political crisis, the 16th anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, criticism of the U.S.-Taliban talks by Afghanistan’s national security advisor, international fundraising efforts to aid Syria, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s fading political clout.

This analysis explains how the Salafi-Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has legally justified its relations with Turkey. Although HTS was careful to avoid direct military collaboration with Turkey, it welcomed the Turkish Army’s presence as an additional force against the Syrian regime and secular opposition groups. This caused a significant rift among the group’s supporters and the al-Qaeda community, who accused HTS of thwarting its own jihad by forming relations with Turkey, considered by Salafi-Jihadists to be an apostate.