مخاوف خامنئي على مستقبل رجال الدين الإيرانيين (الجزء الثالث)
هذا هو الجزء الأخير من سلسلة مكونة من ثلاثة أجزاء
عندما توفي آية الله روح الله الخميني، مؤسس جمهورية إيران الإسلامية، عن عمر يناهز 89 عامًا، تمتع هو والنظام الذي أسسه بدعم معظم رجال الدين رفيعي المستوى في البلاد.
لكن خليفته، المرشد الأعلى آية الله علي خامنئي، البالغ من العمر 82 عامًا، يواجه وضعًا مختلفًا للغاية. فمن الواضح أن معظم كبار رجال الدين لا يؤيدونه، وقد تسبب “انحراف” الجيل الجديد من رجال الدين في مخاوف متزايدة داخل النظام.
Istikharah or divination, according to Islamic definitions, means to seek goodness and to consult God in various affairs. Istikharah is very common among Shiites, including bibliomancy, which involves randomly opening the Qur’an and reading the first verse on the page, or rosary divination. The use of istikharah has a long history in Iran, not only among the common people, but also among its rulers, who have used it to make decisions on the governance of the country, and this continues to the present day.
In September, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke of the “unlimited” potential to expand Tehran-Havana ties, and both sides have highlighted the fields of medicine and agriculture as ideal areas for cooperation. While that might be the case, there is no denying that the Iran-Cuba partnership represents the coming together of two entirely different political models that above all rests on shared conflict with the United States.
مخاوف خامنئي على مستقبل رجال الدين الإيرانيين (الجزء الثاني)
هذا هو الجزء الثاني من سلسلة مكونة من ثلاثة أجزاء
في السنوات الأخيرة، نُشِرت العديد من التحليلات حول النفوذ المتزايد للحرس الثوري الإسلامي داخل النظام الإيراني. لا شك أنه في العقدين الماضيين، ازدادت قوة الحرس الثوري في المجالات السياسية والاقتصادية والأمنية بشكل كبير، ومع تزايد عدد الشخصيات العسكرية أو العسكرية السابقة في إدارة الرئيس الإيراني الجديد، إبراهيم رئيسي، لا يتوقع سوى أن يتجه نفوذ الحرس الثوري نحو مزيد من التوسع.
Khamenei’s concerns over the future of the Iranian clergy (Part 3)
When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, died at the age of 89, he and the regime he established enjoyed the support of most of the country’s high-ranking clerics. His successor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 82, faces a very different situation, however. Most senior clerics apparently do not support him, and the “deviation” of the new generation of clerics has caused growing concerns within the regime.
عقب استقالة وزير المالية واستبداله بأحد الموالين للرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان في الثاني من ديسمبر/كانون الأول، واصلت الليرة التركية تراجعها المطرد أمام الدولار، لتصل خسائرها خلال العام إلى قرابة 50٪. من جديد تقع العملة التركية تحت وابل من المضاربات، على غرار الحلقات السابقة في يوليو/تموز 2018 وأكتوبر/تشرين
A stranger among us: Iran's tightening grip on religious minorities
For thousands of years, Iran has stood out as a culture that prized diversity and a place where religious minorities have flourished as independent communities. The Islamic Republic now seeks to change that, however, by implanting its own leaders inside different faith groups to protect and advance its interests.
Khamenei’s concerns over the future of the Iranian clergy (Part 2)
In recent years, numerous analyses have been published on the increasing influence of the IRGC within the Iranian regime. Nevertheless, the rise in the power of the military should not overshadow the fact that in the Islamic Republic, not only the paramount position of supreme leader, but also many other key roles are held exclusively by clerics. Moreover, many of these clerics, including the highest-ranking ones, must be appointed by the supreme leader. This system was designed to ensure the loyalty of key officials, but over time has given rise to growing concerns over the reliability of the next generation of clerics and the transfer of power.
Ahead of the seventh round of the Iran nuclear negotiations that ended on Dec. 3 in Vienna, many observers interpreted Ebrahim Raisi’s election to the presidency and his recent rhetoric as representing a distinct shift in Iran’s nuclear strategy. Indeed, in November, Raisi’s government’s official newspaper Iran explained that Tehran’s strategy in Vienna has changed, and that it has embraced a new approach looking to compel the West to agree with Iran’s terms for a “good deal.” Yet there is more continuity than change in Iranian decision-making on the nuclear file than meets the eye, and Raisi’s election by itself has not represented a fundamental rearrangement.
Following the resignation of the finance minister and his replacement by a loyalist on Dec. 2, the Turkish lira continued its steady decline against the dollar, bringing its losses for the year to nearly 50%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s early cuts to the policy rate since September have resulted in an exodus of foreign capital and a rush in demand for foreign exchange among domestic investors.
Iranians are disillusioned with Biden’s soft approach to the Islamic Republic
If the Biden administration makes concessions to appease the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the recently resumed Vienna nuclear talks, it will be a historic mistake. The Islamic Republic is facing a deep legitimacy crisis of its own making, as a series of disastrous decisions have hardened the people’s views against the regime. These days, anyone who is seen to be throwing the Islamic Republic a lifeline will be wildly unpopular among Iranians.
