In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol to discuss democratic backsliding in Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
On October 31, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution centering Morocco’s autonomy plan as the basis for resolving the Western Sahara conflict. The UN vote and comments from United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff suggest President Donald Trump wants another headline foreign policy “peacemaking” win. But the opportunity for the Trump administration is bigger than just resolving the Western Sahara issue. It could unlock an opportunity for Morocco-Algeria reconciliation that could integrate the wider Maghreb economy, reduce migration into Europe, expand energy cooperation, and enable stronger Sahel counter-terrorism coordination.
For years, Israeli populist politicians have chipped away at the country’s democratic guardrails. But the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 accelerated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s drive to consolidate power. The kind of societal pushback that once blocked his efforts to expand executive authority is now under severe strain. Israel’s multi-front conflict with Iran, Hamas, and other Iranian proxies has blunted protest movements and sidelined those who once filled the streets in defense of democracy. Defending checks and balances has been eclipsed by wartime priorities.
For years, the prevailing assumption was that the Houthis’ survival depended on battlefield victories and Iranian support. Both are essential, but there is a third critical and often overlooked factor: the weaponization of international engagement. In a pattern that continues to repeat itself, engagement without accountability strengthens rather than moderates Houthi behavior.
For much of the past eighty years, the United States has seen itself — and often acted — as a global champion of democracy. Through the power of example, and through its diplomacy, security alliances, and aid programs, Washington has sought to strengthen democratic institutions and push back against authoritarianism.
The record, of course, has never been perfect. The US has at times backed autocratic leaders in pursuit of strategic or economic gain. But overall, it has been a net force for democracy worldwide.
The central challenge facing Lebanon today is whether the country will graduate to functional statehood or continue struggling to survive. Yet with Lebanese officials now insisting that the state “monopolize arms” and become the decisive arbiter on matters of war and peace, a relevant question arises: Where, territorially, does Lebanon begin and end?
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact on September 17, 2025, declaring that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” The wording of the agreement sparked speculation that Pakistan might use its nuclear capabilities to defend Saudi Arabia. MEI’s F. Gregory Gause contends otherwise, offering insight into the history and strategic calculations driving the deal. To learn more about the deal, visit our website.
Following Israel’s September 9 strike on Hamas targets in Qatar, Pakistan has taken swift and significant foreign policy steps in response and adopted an unusually assertive stance. This shift was largely influenced by Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. The latter is determined to enhance his country’s strategic autonomy and diplomatic leverage in an increasingly complex international environment by positioning Pakistan as a key security actor and an emerging middle power on the global stage.
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signed in Riyadh on September 17, is far more than a bilateral pledge. It represents a profound reordering of alignments in the Gulf and South Asia, reflecting and reinforcing the broader erosion of US preeminence in the Eurasian security architecture. While much of the initial commentary centered on the striking commitment of a wealthy Gulf monarchy to the defense of a nuclear-armed South Asian state, as well as the question of whether Pakistan had in fact extended its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, the deeper story is arguably China’s potential advance.
The September 17 Saudi-Pakistani defense agreement generated a wave of overheated commentary about Saudi Arabia now residing under a Pakistani nuclear umbrella and how a new strategic reality was in the offing in the Persian Gulf and South Asian regions. Analysts need to slow their roll. Extended deterrence is an extremely difficult thing to pull off. The devil is in the details, about which we know nothing.
In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Mirette F. Mabrouk to unpack the growing tensions over the recently inaugurated Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile.
Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought assassinations, mass displacement, and Israel’s full-scale war against Hezbollah in the south. With its economy in free fall and its political system on life support, Lebanon stands at a crossroads: could shifts in regional power, efforts to disarm Hezbollah, and a change in leadership pave the way for recovery, or will instability deepen?
The European Union has announced plans to sanction Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. If adopted, the move would mark a historic shift in EU-Israel relations. MEI’s Iulia Joja unpacks the proposal’s background, what the sanctions would entail, and their potential impact on the EU’s position in the Middle East.
North African states are turning long-standing diplomatic relationships into new opportunities for leverage, using migration flows, energy supplies, and security partnerships as bargaining chips. These new tactics and strategies are reshaping regional diplomacy.
Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders—including Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief rival. With trials looming that could replace CHP leadership with government loyalists, the party warns of a legal ‘coup.’ What does this crackdown mean for Turkey’s fragile economy, its 2028 elections, and the future of democracy itself?