The walls of the Oman Library are decorated with delicate painted eyes, colored in hazel and warm greys. After only a few steps, their discreet, and grief-stricken nature gives way to boldness and haunting certainty. They are eyes that refuse to be ignored.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Brexit’s impact on the Middle East, how Brexit is distracting the E.U. from Israel-Palestine issues, and Iran’s more moderate reshuffling of officials focusing on Syria.
Brexit’s Impact on the Middle East
Daniel Serwer, MEI Scholar
Israeli President Reuven “Ruby” Rivlin was recently asked about the prospects for a two-state solution to Israel’s long conflict with the Palestinians. He described this concept for building a future between Israel and its neighbor as “irrelevant.” Indeed, he claims to have said as much to President Barack Obama when they last met.
What does “irrelevant” mean in this context? The dictionary lists as its synonyms “immaterial” or “beside the point.”
Egypt, which enjoys friendly relations with both the Palestinian Authority and Israel, understands that it must normalize relations with Hamas to be able to act as a mediator between the three parties. The Egyptian government, which has yet to achieve convincing results in the fight against terrorist groups in Sinai, is also in need of Hamas’ cooperation in this area.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI chairman Richard A. Clarke responds to the mass shooting in Orlando, and Charles Lister and Antoun Issa provide analysis on events including the pushing back of ISIS in Libya and the upcoming meeting of Hamas and Fatah.
What To Do, and What Not To Do, to Stop the Next Orlando
Richard A. Clarke, Chairman of the Board of Governors
For several years, Israeli-Saudi collaboration over regional geostrategy to check Iranian influence has been the worst kept secret in the Middle East since the advent of Israel’s robust nuclear arsenal. Still, public coordination has been taboo, and while indirect, and even direct, coordination may be taking place behind closed doors, no official relationships can develop. This, of course, is due to the history between the state of Israel and the Arab world.
Read the full article on Al Jazeera.
These days even the hint of a renewal of diplomacy on Palestine is enough to set tongues wagging. In recent months, France has led what remains an inchoate effort to fill the diplomatic vacuum created by the Obama administration’s decision two years ago to close its book on Palestine.
The 2016 presidential primaries have upended a wide variety of assumptions about the rules of American politics, and what the traffic will bear. One of these areas is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
With the exception of the extremely slow reconstruction process of what was destroyed during the last Israel-Gaza war in the summer of 2014, the conditions that preceded that war remain in place. The Palestinian reconciliation process remains cosmetic, negotiations for a truce between Israel and Hamas that were supposed to resume under Egyptian auspices have stalled, and humanitarian conditions in Gaza are becoming increasingly dire. Without improvement on any of these issues, the risks for a new round of fighting remain high.
Regional Cooperation Series
This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute’s Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry.
Summary
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Paul Scham, Charles Lister, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent events including Lebanon’s elections, unrest in Gaza, the ongoing Syria talks, and Saudi Arabia’s new oil minister.
Lebanon Elections Run Smoothly
Paul Salem, Vice President for Policy and Research
Since the mid-2000s, Egypt has developed into a main transit country for irregular migrants, either to Libya or to Israel. Now, as the traditional paths have largely been closed, many migrants and refugees are blocked in Cairo and along Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. Boarding a boat towards Europe is for many the only option to escape negligence, detention and abuse.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Washington, the reshuffling of Iraq’s cabinet, King Salman’s forthcoming visit to Egypt, and the latest attempts by Jabhat al-Nusra over the weekend to disrupt the Syrian political process.
The military took advantage of political crisis to remove civilian governments in Egypt in 2013 and Thailand in 2014. This essay discusses three important features of the Egyptian and Thai political systems that have fostered the military’s ruling ambition in both cases.
