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Erdogan pulls a rabbit out of his hat with Black Sea gas find, but is it all it seems?
Photo by Mustafa Kamaci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Erdogan pulls a rabbit out of his hat with Black Sea gas find, but is it all it seems?

    “God has opened the door to unprecedented wealth for us,” said an enthusiastic Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he announced that Turkey had made its biggest-ever discovery of natural gas on Aug. 21. He promised that gas from the 320-billion-cubic-meter deep-sea find would reach consumers in 2023, but industry experts are skeptical and have raised questions about the feasibility of the discovery.

    Petrodollars and pandemic: GCC tourism in Georgia
  • Analysis
  • Petrodollars and pandemic: GCC tourism in Georgia

    In one of the interesting turnarounds in recent years, travel flows between the Black Sea region and the Middle East have undergone a silent change. During the past decade, this southward flow of shuttle migrants was replaced by Middle Easterners heading northwards in search of promising business opportunities and alternative holiday destinations.

    August 24, 2020

    Conflict in the South Caucasus
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Conflict in the South Caucasus

    Tom de Waal, Nicole Grajewski, and Theodore Karasik join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the recent border hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the role that Russia, Turkey, and Iran are playing in the geostrategically important South Caucasus.

    August 21, 2020

    Reimagining the Middle East
    Regional map
  • Analysis
  • Reimagining the Middle East

    As the people of Iran and the region rise up against the regime in Tehran, it is time to prepare for what comes next and imagine what could lead to the region’s next renaissance: a Middle Eastern cooperative organization.

    August 19, 2020

    The Impact of Middle East Regional Competition on Security and Stability in the Horn of Africa
    Photo by Volkan Furuncu/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The Impact of Middle East Regional Competition on Security and Stability in the Horn of Africa

    The relationship between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa is centuries-old and complex. While the world’s attention is focused mainly on the “great power competition” in the region, primarily between the U.S. and China, the Horn of Africa has also become a central battleground for influence among competing regional players, principally Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and Egypt. As they pursue their interests in the region, from Ethiopia and Sudan to Somalia and Djibouti, these competing states are the main drivers of tension and instability in the Horn of Africa.

    August 18, 2020

    Russia, Iran, and economic integration on the Caspian
    Photo by Iranian Presidency / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Russia, Iran, and economic integration on the Caspian

    In recent weeks, reports of a potential 25-year, $400-billion deal between Iran and China have dominated the conversation about Tehran’s options for freeing itself from the punishing U.S.-imposed sanctions regime on the country. But China is not alone in seeing an embattled Iran as a major geopolitical and commercial opportunity — Russia too has ambitions of strengthening ties with Iran.

    The Black Sea: Economic Region or Intersection?
  • Analysis
  • The Black Sea: Economic Region or Intersection?

    For those who study the countries and regions that surround it, the Black Sea is many things — a global trade thoroughfare, a zone of contestation, a cradle of civilizations, and a dying ecosystem. But, curiously, one of the more opaque factors is whether the Black Sea region — the states and polities on its littoral and immediate hinterland — is a region at all.

    August 11, 2020

    A silver lining in Lebanon?
    Photo by Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • A silver lining in Lebanon?

    Beirut will rise again from the ashes, like it always has. But the real rebuilding that must occur is not physical in nature. It is political. Nothing will truly change in Lebanon unless the country’s corrupt and incompetent leaders, who have been in power for decades, are unseated.

    August 7, 2020

    America must stay focused on Georgia's de-occupation and transatlantic path
  • Analysis
  • America must stay focused on Georgia's de-occupation and transatlantic path

    This week marks the 12th anniversary of Russia’s wonton invasion of Georgia. While the world was fixated on the Summer Olympics in Beijing, an invasion force comprised of hundreds of Russian tanks and armored vehicles passed through the Roki tunnel on the Russian–Georgian border.

    August 7, 2020

    The Paris Agreement in the Black Sea Region
  • Analysis
  • The Paris Agreement in the Black Sea Region

    The annual Conference of the Parties (COP) was initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995 to assess progress made by UN members in dealing with climate change. Some meetings have had practical and measurable outcomes, such as the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. But arguably the most well-known meeting is the 2015 COP21 in Paris, also known as the Paris Agreement.

    August 7, 2020

    Syria is facing a COVID-19 catastrophe
    Photo by LOUAI BESHARA/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Syria is facing a COVID-19 catastrophe

    After months of under-reported cases and relaxed lockdown measures, the rapidly spreading COVID-19 pandemic has gripped government-held areas. A worrying rise in daily deaths and infections, especially in Damascus, has left Syria facing what could be its biggest challenge yet.

    Moscow and Ankara will continue uneasy cooperation
  • Analysis
  • Moscow and Ankara will continue uneasy cooperation

    As Russia partially reopens international travel amidst the ongoing pandemic, Turkey is in the top three countries for resumed Russian flights. Moscow also touts possible space cooperation with Turkey amidst tensions with the US on this issue. Despite disagreements between Moscow and Ankara over Syria, Libya, and the broader Black Sea region, Russia and Turkey remain determined to cooperate. But the relationship remains unequal.

    August 6, 2020

    The Dangers Presented by Russian and PRC Weapons Sales to Iran
  • Analysis
  • The Dangers Presented by Russian and PRC Weapons Sales to Iran

    In October, the United Nations embargo on arms sales to Iran is scheduled to expire.  This was a deadline specified in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal concluded by the Obama Administration.  The Trump administration stridently opposes the lifting of this restriction and is lobbying within the UN Security Council to have the embargo extended indefinitely. 

    August 4, 2020

    After successfully managing COVID-19, Tunisia gets back to its old problems
    Photo by Yassine Gaidi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • After successfully managing COVID-19, Tunisia gets back to its old problems

    Tunisia seems to have avoided the worst of the first phase of the global coronavirus crisis. And yet whatever the final tally of the pandemic might be, its consequences will only add to a host of existing problems that have beset the North African country in recent years, including political instability, a stalled economy, security threats, and financial woes.

    August 3, 2020