“عملية انفراج تدريجية هي أفضل ما يمكن أن نأمله في العلاقات الإيرانية السعودية”.
In the 19th century, the Gulf was a British lake. In the 20th century, American warships played an all but unchallenged role securing the safe and unfettered passage of oil to the West. As the 21st century progresses, the transition to a new era is unstoppable.
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Even if we assume that there is goodwill between the U.S. and Iran to improve relations, the power of algorithms will place major stumbling blocks in the way of efforts toward future normalization. A priori programming of foreign policy options and lines of argument have led to immutable algorithms causing the relationship between the two countries to calcify. On both sides, the key personalities who define national security, interpret events, and shape policies toward one another have had virtually no direct contact or experiences with each other’s country. They interpret events, extract meanings, react to one another, and delineate policies through prisms, images, metaphors, binaries, groupthink, and in the lexicon of artificial intelligence, algorithms.
The announcement of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), a 25 year-long economic and development agreement between China and Iran, has immediately added to the intensifying discourse concerning US-China Geostrategic Competition. Nonetheless, a closer look at its implications suggests that it may be useful in achieving some U.S. goals with Iran: particularly regime modernization.
“يبدو أن كل شيء له علاقة بالمؤتمر في تركيا مازال مُعلقًا”.
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“يبدو الحفاظ على النسخة الأصلية من “خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة” هو أفضل السُبُل لروسيا لمواءمة هذه الاعتبارات الثلاثة”.
Relations between the United States and Turkey have never been worse, but the two countries still must deal with each other, and so President Joe Biden and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may talk this week. Each will review his list of issues. Both will commit to better relations and to best efforts to reach peaceful solutions to global, regional, and bilateral issues — and very little will change.
Turkey initiated a strategy to engage Southeast Asian nations in the early 2000s that resulted in the opening of new embassies and branches of numerous state-sponsored institutions across the region. With the launching of the Asia Anew Initiative in late 2019, Ankara has redoubled efforts to forge closer ties with the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and with ASEAN itself.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
“بينما تعد ندرة المياه في إيران وبقية دول الشرق الأوسط مشكلة طويلة الأمد، فإن بعض الجهود للتعامل معها تبدو محاولات يائسة ولم يتم التخطيط لها دائمًا بعناية”.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.