In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Paul Scham, Randa Slim, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s apparent lack of a coherent strategy in the implementation of executive orders, the possibility of an improved relationship between Israel and the UK in the wake of Brexit, the Astana meeting to discuss the Syrian cease-fire deal, bilateral efforts to improve Turkish-Israel relations, and the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Pakistani relations under the Trump administration.
On February 5, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, said that “certain countries are worried about the weakening of terrorist groups in Syria.” Shamkhani made the remarks after his meeting with visiting Russian president’s Special Envoy for Syrian Affairs, Alexander Lavrentiev. Shamkhani and Lavrentiev praised the latest Syrian peace talks held in Astana and which were brokered by Russia, Turkey and Iran.
President Donald Trump’s January 25 remark that he “will absolutely do safe zones in Syria” has prompted worries in Tehran.
A senior Iranian official credited the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) for
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s controversial travel ban, the Syrian regime’s dismissal of calls for a cease-fire, and the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
On January 27, Iranian media reported that top Iranian envoy, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who visited Damascus this week, also met the Iranian supreme leader’s special representative to Syria, Abolfazl Tabatabai Ashkezari. Ashkezari was appointed by the personal decree of Khamenei in March 2016. He has been living in Syria since.
The January 26 meeting between the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hossein Amir Abdollahian is another important sign that Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has at best very little influence over Iran’s Syria’s policy. The official title of Amir Abdollahian is “Director General of International Affairs” at the Iranian parliament, the Majlis. However, this generic title given to Abdullahian is in no way a true reflection of his power in Tehran and the critical base of support he enjoys.
Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”
Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.
Iran, Russia and Turkey agreed earlier today to establish a trilateral mechanism to enforce the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria. After a two-day meeting in Kazakhstan sponsored by Moscow, the trio issued a joint statement that called for “a political process based on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution 2254” to end the Syrian civil war.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.
Iran will build a mobile phone network in Syria under an agreement signed by the two countries’ ministries of information and communications technology, Iranian media reports.
While much ink has been spilled about how Iran’s involvement in the Syrian civil war has fueled sectarianism and instability in the Arab world, the implications of Iran’s increasing recruitment of Afghan and Pakistani Shiites on security and stability in South Asia have largely been overlooked. Over the past five years, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has recruited, indoctrinated, trained and deployed thousands of Afghan and Pakistani Shiites to fight under its command against Sunni rebel groups across Syria.
