Research & Commentary Results

Since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Tehran has encouraged and contributed to the formation of countless Shiite militia groups in Iraq. While most of these armed groups are now formally organized under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), they have in reality remained independent entities and are not controlled by the civilian government in Baghdad.

But has Tehran committed a strategic blunder by fracturing the Iraqi Shiite armed groups or does the existence of competing Shiite Iraqi militias benefit the Islamic Republic?

Qais al-Khazali, the secretary-general of Iraq’s Asaib ahl al-Haq armed group, has accused the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey of supporting the Islamic State in Iraq and the broader region, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. “The heroic forces of Hashd al-Shaabi [Popular Mobilization Forces] easily chop the heads of these forces,” he said while describing the Islamic State as the “special forces” of the United States and its allies.

Prominent Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s weekend visit to Saudi Arabia has raised concerns in Tehran. While the Iranian government and media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) largely refrained from commenting on Sadr’s trip and his meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, some conservative newspapers and Iranian analysts cautioned that the Saudi government is attempting to court Iraqi Shiite leaders to influence Iraqi politics at the expense of Iran’s interests.

Leaning toward Riyadh?

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, W. Robert Pearson, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Randa Slim weigh in on the implications of Israel-Palestinian violence for U.S. foreign policy, Turkish involvement in the Gulf crisis, al-Qaeda’s response to the U.S. decision to terminate support for a program arming anti-Assad Syrian rebels, confrontational U.S. policy towards the Iran nuclear deal, and a former Iraqi Prime Minister’s power play.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.

Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow

Iran’s Islamic Azad University (IAU) plans to open new branches in Lebanon and Iraq, according to Ali Akbar Velayati, the head of the university’s board of founders and an influential political figure in the Islamic Republic.

On Monday, the head of Iran’s Quds Force revealed that the country’s defense ministry worked over time in recent years to manufacture weapons to equip Iraq’s Army and the Hashd al-Shaabi – the Iraqi paramilitary forces also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces [P.M.F.] – in their fight against the Islam

A senior Iranian military official said on Tuesday that the liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul from the Islamic State sounded “the death knell for the divisive plots” of the United States and its regional allies, the Iranian media reported.

A commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) – also known as Hashd al-Shaabi – has said that the paramilitary forces will not agree to the presence of American forces or foreign private security firms in post-Islamic State Iraq, particularly in regions near the Syrian border. “The central government has almost agreed to Blackwater controlling the borders. But Blackwater doesn’t have the authority and resources to control the borders or fight Daesh [Islamic State].

On Wednesday, the commander of the Ground Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.)

Ammar al-Hakim, the head of Iraq’s Shiite ruling coalition, has said during his visit to Tehran that the Baghdad government will reduce the number of American military advisors and their role after the liberation of Mosul. “We emphasize that we oppose the presence of their military forces the same way we opposed foreign military bases on the Iraqi soil,” Hakim said in an interview with Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).

With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

The U.S. military is taking measures in the Iraqi province of al-Anbar close to the Syrian border to counter the growing influence of the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), reports Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.). According to the Iranian outlet, the U.S. military seeks to push back against the P.M.F.’s territorial gains because Washington and its allies see the Iraqi paramilitary forces as “Iran’s operational arm” in Iraq and Syria. According to Fars, the U.S.