Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump, the Saudi Crown Prince’s first extended travel abroad, the Taliban’s call for peace negotiations with the U.S., and Turkey’s pivot to Africa.

On February 25, Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri appointed Hassan Danaeifar, former ambassador to Baghdad and an officer of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps’ Quds Force (IRGC-QF) officer, political adviser.

Over the course of the last three years, the Middle East Institute convened a regional dialogue involving participants acting in their personal capacities from Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The dialogue also involved participants from China, Europe, Russia and the United States. The discussions resulted in the following declaration of good neighborhood principles for the Middle East agreed in Baghdad 15-16 December 2017.
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The Middle East dialogue, which began its twice-a-year meetings in October 2012, convened its eleventh meeting in Baghdad 15-16 December. Participants included current and former officials and senior experts from Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and United Arab Emirates as well as China, Europe, Russia, and the United States.

The head of a prominent Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq has said that the priority of the next government in Baghdad will be to “expel the American forces from Iraq and terminate the strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries.” Qais al-Khazali, who is the leader of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, also predicted that a coalition of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) will form the next government after the upcoming parliamentary elections slated for May 12.

Iran has announced that it will allow Iraqi travelers and businesspeople to visit the Iranian cities of Abadan and Khorramshahr without the need for a visa, Iranian and Iraqi media reported. According to the consulate general of Iran in the Iraqi city of Basra, Tehran is waiting for the Iraqi government to approve the new policy and cancel the visa requirement for its citizens planning on traveling to the two Iranian cities.

The secretary-general of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iraqi militia group with close ties with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), has said that the group will avenge the blood of Iraqi paramilitary forces recently killed in the Iraqi province of Kirkuk by “cleansing” Iraq of the American presence,

While donor countries and organizations pledged $30 billion for Iraq’s reconstruction at an international conference held in Kuwait on February 14, Iran – which portrays itself as Iraq’s closest ally – made no financial commitments.

Several Iranian-supported Iraqi militia commanders and politicians this week called for the withdrawal of American troops from the country, argying that they are no longer needed as ISIS is now militarily defeated, Iranian and Iraqi media reported. A senior official of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), a unit within the Popular Mobilization Force with close ties with Iran’s elite Quds Force and the Lebanese Hezbollah, said today that the paramilitary forces and Iraqi parliament will not allow Washington to keep its troops in Iraq.

On the surface, the Chinese reaction to the US decision to effectively recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was clear. Following President Trump’s announcement to transfer the US embassy to the Holy City on December 6, 2017. Several days later, China voted with every other member on the UN Security Council (UNSC) to uphold the international consensus and previous UN decisions on Jerusalem. By going against world opinion, the US arguably looked out of step in relation to the conflict. By contrast, China’s alignment with international public opinion gave it the aura of a potential mediator. This essay considers whether Beijing has the political will and capacity to make a significant positive impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In this week’s Weekly Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, Gonul Tol, and Ibrahim al-Assil provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Benjamin Netanyahu investigations, the impact of Rex Tillerson’s visit to Turkey, and Russia’s presence in Eastern Ghouta.

Netanyahu faces a whirlwind of investigations
Eran Etzion, MEI Scholar

Iran’s top general responsible for external operations marked the 10th assassination anniversary of late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh by promising the destruction of the state of Israel,

The leader of an Iraqi militia group with close ties to Iran traveled to Lebanon this week to voice solidarity with Hezbollah and pledged to stand with the “axis of resistance” in any future wars with Israel. Akram al-Kaabi, the head of Harakat al-Nujaba, made the remarks to reporters in southern Beirut after visiting the tomb of late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, who was allegedly killed by Israel. “We, at the axis of resistance, will mobilize forces against Israel at any place.

The latest evidence of the evolving nature of the war in Syria was on display Saturday, Feb. 10, when Israel mounted what a senior Israeli officer called “the biggest and most significant attack the air force has conducted against Syrian air defenses” since the 1982 Lebanon war. The unprecedented encounter was precipitated by the intrusion of an Iranian drone into Israeli airspace and led to the downing of a top-of-the-line Israeli F-16 by Syrian air defenses.

Iraqi Interior Minister Qasim al-Araji announced yesterday that the country is planning on opening the al-Qaim-Abu Kamal border crossing between Iraq and Syria, Iranian and Iraqi media reported.  Al-Araji, who is a senior member of Iran-backed Badr Organization, added that his ministry has obtained permission from Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Chief of Staff of the Iraqi military, General Othman Al-Ghanimi, to reopen the strategic border crossing.