Research & Commentary Results

A senior official of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iran-supported militia unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), has threatened violence against the leadership of the Iraqi Kurdistan, according to Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including next steps in the Syrian conflict de-escalation process, General Zinni’s mission to the Gulf, Qatari-Turkish relations, and crude oil informal cooperation.

The Popular Mobilization Forces – the Iraqi paramilitary forces also known by its Arabic name Hashd al-Shaabi – will not be disbanded after the fight against the Islamic State is over and will remain a key player in Iraq, the alliance’s security spokesman said on Sunday. “Hashd al-Shaabi is an official military organization affiliated with the government of Iraq.

The Syrian government greatly appreciates Tehran’s unwavering support in “the fight against terrorism” over the past years and now wants Iran to play an active role in the war-torn country’s reconstruction and economic development, Syria’s Prime Minister Imad Khamis said in a meeting with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on Sunday.

Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) groups have agreed to form an alliance – dubbed as the Coalition of the Loyalists – under the leadership of the Badr Organization to participate in the country’s next parliamentary elections, Fars News Agency, an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) reports. P.M.F. units such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuada, Kata’ib Jund al-Imam, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq will be part of the new alliance.

A senior Iraqi Shiite leader has rejected reports that he plans to visit Saudi Arabia, telling Iranian journalists that he will only visit the Kingdom if Saudi troops leave Bahrain and Yemen. “Saudi Arabia recently sent a message to me through a mediator asking if I would go to meet this country’s leaders if they invite me. I responded by saying that if their gift to me is leaving Bahrain and ending the killing of Yemen’s innocent people, I will certainly accept. Of course, this request was rejected by them.

With the fall of Mosul, Iranian-supported Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) is preparing for post-Islamic State Iraq. The paramilitary forces have recently launched a professional public relations campaign on the Internet and social media aimed at justifying and legitimizing P.M.F.’s existence beyond the collapse of the Islamic State. Should the P.M.F. prevail in this effort, it will mark a victory for the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), which has aided P.M.F. groups for years and sees them crucial for its influence in Iraq in the future.

Since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Tehran has encouraged and contributed to the formation of countless Shiite militia groups in Iraq. While most of these armed groups are now formally organized under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), they have in reality remained independent entities and are not controlled by the civilian government in Baghdad.

But has Tehran committed a strategic blunder by fracturing the Iraqi Shiite armed groups or does the existence of competing Shiite Iraqi militias benefit the Islamic Republic?

Both the Trump and Obama administrations have made defeating ISIS the United State’s number one priority in the Middle East. In Syria, this focus led the United States to support the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (Y.P.G.) against ISIS. One of the major contributing factors behind this decision was that the Y.P.G. was not actively hostile to the Syrian regime, unlike the Syrian opposition. U.S. support for the Y.P.G.

Qais al-Khazali, the secretary-general of Iraq’s Asaib ahl al-Haq armed group, has accused the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey of supporting the Islamic State in Iraq and the broader region, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. “The heroic forces of Hashd al-Shaabi [Popular Mobilization Forces] easily chop the heads of these forces,” he said while describing the Islamic State as the “special forces” of the United States and its allies.

Prominent Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s weekend visit to Saudi Arabia has raised concerns in Tehran. While the Iranian government and media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) largely refrained from commenting on Sadr’s trip and his meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, some conservative newspapers and Iranian analysts cautioned that the Saudi government is attempting to court Iraqi Shiite leaders to influence Iraqi politics at the expense of Iran’s interests.

Leaning toward Riyadh?

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

In the middle of the main market in Idlib City, during one of the busiest days of the year, Eid day, Amal, a local resident, was stopped by the Islamic police. She was chastised because of her refusal to wear the required long dark coat, the mantou. Instead of looking down or profusely apologizing, Amal shot back at the Islamic police that is affiliated with Jaish al-Fatah, “No one has anything to do with what I wear!

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, W. Robert Pearson, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Randa Slim weigh in on the implications of Israel-Palestinian violence for U.S. foreign policy, Turkish involvement in the Gulf crisis, al-Qaeda’s response to the U.S. decision to terminate support for a program arming anti-Assad Syrian rebels, confrontational U.S. policy towards the Iran nuclear deal, and a former Iraqi Prime Minister’s power play.

Non-refoulement is a well-recognized principle of customary international law that forbids the forced deportation of refugees and asylum seekers to their country of origin. This essay discusses the increasingly common practice of refoulement in Jordan and the circumstances in which this development is taking place.