The Islamic State has regained its momentum, and the Biden administration might inadvertently give it another boost.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Since early last year there has been a surge in drug-related assassinations in Syria’s southwestern Daraa Province, adding a new layer to the region’s persistent violence. The regime’s complicity, driven by financial and political motives, has fostered a climate where drug networks operate with impunity, spurring locals to take matters into their own hands.
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The following quantitative analysis explores the core of Israel’s strategic airstrikes in Syria between 2013 and August 2023, a critical aspect of its defense policy during this time, aimed at mitigating Iranian influence in the region and protecting its national borders.
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There are many signs of a deterioration of relations between Russia and Israel since the start of the war in Gaza, and they have stoked concern about potential flashpoints between the two countries, not least in Syria, where both have a military presence.
Representatives from both sides have been openly bickering at various diplomatic meetings in clashes that have become almost commonplace.
Over the last three weeks, there has been a notable escalation in attacks targeting international coalition bases in northeastern Syria orchestrated by Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Concurrently, there have been reports indicating the establishment of operational centers aimed at coordinating these strikes. These developments appear to be part of an effort to exploit the widespread popular discontent with the United States and Israel, with the strategic aim of expanding and consolidating Iranian influence in Syria.
Hamas’ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrimental to their regional interests. The war in Gaza might help close the ranks between Turkey and Iran, yet there are serious limitations to a sustainable alliance between the two countries.
On 7 October, Hamas shocked the world, when thousands of its militants invaded southern Israel, taking control of territory, massacring civilians and kidnapping hundreds.
The attack itself demonstrated an unusual level of complexity, with a first wave seeing drones taking out Israeli reconnaissance equipment and observation posts and cyber attacks creating distractions, opening a path for amassed militant incursions from the air, sea and ground.
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For the better part of a decade, Turkey and the U.S. have been locked in what might be considered an unhappy marriage, marked by bitter misunderstandings and growing distrust. Some optimists had hoped that something of a reset might be possible, but recent events, both in Turkey’s ongoing conflict with the PKK and because of the ripple effects from Israel’s war with Hamas, likely mean that U.S.-Turkish relations, far from improving, will get colder yet in the months to come.
Russia, historically viewed as a major stakeholder and player in the Middle East since the Cold War, is seeing its leverage eroding as the Hamas-Israel war enters its third week, and the Kremlin is absent despite attempts to mediate the conflict.
On Sept. 26, Jordan dealt a double blow to drug traffickers by intercepting two drones packed with crystal meth from Syria. But this is just the tip of a rapidly growing iceberg. In the past two months alone, Amman has thwarted four more drones, each laden with a deadly cocktail of drugs, arms, and explosives. This surge illuminates a disturbing evolution in the tactics of smuggling networks operating in southern Syria.