Monday Briefing: Trump Scores a Ruinous ‘Own Goal’ in the Middle East
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s controversial travel ban, the Syrian regime’s dismissal of calls for a cease-fire, and the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
IRGC-Controlled Media Continue to Glorify Iraqi Shiite Militias
Tasnim News, an outlet that is affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), has published a rare video footage of its correspondent’s account of Shiite militia operations in Iraq. In what the outlet calls “exclusive” video, the correspondent is seen accompanying fighters from Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Force) in the battle for Mosul against fighters from the Islamic State.
Iranian-state media have been defending Iraj Masjedi, Tehran’s new ambassador to Baghdad. Masjedi is a member of the Qods Force, the external branch of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Al-Alam, the Iranian-sponsored media outlet that is aimed at the Arabic-speaking world, quoted Iraq’s National Security Advisor, Falih al-Fayyad, to say that Masjedi is welcome in Baghdad and that “he is someone [Iraqis] know and appreciate for his past record in Iraq.”
Iran-Backed Militia Units Continue West Mosul Operations
A senior Iraqi official has said that the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) will take part in the “liberation” of western Mosul. “The popular mobilization forces in Nineveh Province will participate in the liberation operation of Tal Afar,” Iraqi National Security Advisor Falih al-Fayyad said in an interview with Iranian state-run Al-Alam News Network published on January 23.
Baghdad Will “Welcome” Iran’s Controversial Ambassador Pick
A senior Iraqi official has said that Baghdad will welcome Iran’s controversial pick to be its next ambassador to Iraq. Earlier this month, the Iranian media reported that Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi, a senior advisor to Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani, will be Iran’s next envoy to Iraq. The news drew criticism from Saudi officials.
Iranian General Calls for Closure of Saudi Consulate in Erbil
In the latest example of Iranian interference in Iraq, a top Iranian general has said that the presence of the Saudi consulate in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, is not “just
Iran-Backed Militant Groups Make Territorial Gains in West Mosul
On January 12, Iran’s Fars News Agency (FNA) reported that the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) “liberated” three regions in the west of Mosul.
According to FNA, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), PMF forces are preparing for the “sixth phase of operations to liberate the west of Nineveh Province.”
Kayhan, a leading newspaper that represents the most hardline of voices inside the Iranian regime, has been raising doubts about Turkish intentions in the Syrian conflict. The reservations the paper expressed come shortly after the late December 2016 Turkish-Russian-Iranian ceasefire deal aimed to kick-start the political process to find a solution to the six-year Syrian war.
Burden or Boon? Turkey’s Tactical Treatment of the Syrian Refugee Crisis
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) approaches the question of refugees much differently than its European counterparts. The latter’s pushing back against burden-sharing measures has led to what can be described as burden-shifting. In contrast, the AKP’s view of Syrian refugees in Turkey is that they are more of a boon than a burden. This essay explores the thinking and the tactics behind Turkey’s approach to dealing with the Syrian refugees challenge.
The current Syrian ceasefire effort of Russia and Turkey is a Russian attempt to impose a final political defeat on the rebels and a Turkish attempt to focus on eliminating the Kurds in Syria militarily and politically. Turkey is also intensely lobbying the new U.S. administration for help. The ceasefire deal rests on the barbarism of Russia and the Assad regime and the feckless response of the West. This is the peace Rome imposed on the prostrate Carthage. The unanimous UNSC vote endorsing the Russian/Turkish proposal enshrines one side’s brutality and the other’s moral vacuum.
Iran’s Oil Ministry has announced that two new energy contracts have been signed with Iraq. In particular, Tehran is looking to export natural gas to Iraq. Energy is only part of the equation.
Iran Sees Iraqi Shiite Militiamen as “Strategic Capacity”
Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), has called Iraqi Shiite militia, the Hashd Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), a “strategic capacity for the future of Iraq.” Shamkhani said this to the visiting former Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki. Mailiki in turn thanked Iran for its “support for the Iraqi government and people” and lashed out at Tehran’s regional rivals Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Turkey Warns Iran against Breach of Syria Cease-Fire
The Turkish foreign minister has openly urged Iran to “play its role as an underwriter of the ceasefire in Syria.” Mevlut Cavusoglu specifically demanded that Tehran rein in Shiite militiamen and the Lebanese Hezbollah and make them “stop violating” the ceasefire in Syria that was agreed on December28.
